Ecuador’s Export Mix Is Shifting From Cacao Toward Shrimp and Mining

Ecuador’s first-half export data shows a sharp change in sector mix. Shrimp, mining, and bananas are expanding, while cacao is correcting from the exceptional price conditions of 2025. The result is not a single export slowdown; it is a shift in where Ecuador’s external earnings are coming from.

The headline numbers

Non-oil exports reached USD 7.3066 billion in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter figure recorded, although the result was 8.3% below Q4 2025 and 3.7% above the same period a year earlier. The Central Bank attributed the divergence partly to seasonality and cacao’s price behavior.

For the first six months, shrimp generated about USD 4.698 billion, up from USD 4.254 billion in the same period of 2025, a year-over-year increase of approximately 10.4%. Mining exports rose from roughly USD 1.869 billion to USD 2.631 billion, an increase of about 40.8%. Bananas and plantains reached about USD 2.361 billion, around 6% above the prior-year period.

Cacao moved in the opposite direction. Its export value fell from approximately USD 2.310 billion in January–June 2025 to USD 981 million in the same period of 2026, a decline of roughly 57.5%. The volume decline was smaller: Ecuador exported 220,247 metric tons, down 11.1% year over year.

Value is not volume

That difference is the central analytical point. A high-price year can make the next year look weak even when physical shipments remain substantial. The source reports that overall export volume for non-oil, non-mining products grew approximately 4%, while shrimp and banana volumes increased 14.2% and 6.1%, respectively.

The concentration risk remains visible. China accounts for more than half of Ecuador’s shrimp shipments, while higher transport and logistics costs and a potential late-year climate event remain risks identified in the reporting.

What to watch

For investors and operators, the next checkpoint is whether shrimp and mining growth continues to offset cacao’s lower price base without creating new concentration or logistics risk. Track dollar value separately from tonnage, China exposure, freight costs, and any climate shock that changes the second-half export path.

Source: Primicias / Gestión