Latest Analysis
Decree 273 Introduces Sliding Mining Royalties: 3%-5%-8% Scale Plus 100% Self-Power Mandate
Presidential Decree 273, signed December 31, 2025 and effective January 1, 2026, restructures Ecuador's mining royalty framework with a sliding scale tied to trailing three-year LME averages: 3% below reference, 5% at reference, 8% above. The decree also mandates 100% self-generated power for all mining operations — adding an estimated $150-400 million per project — and compresses exploration timelines from approximately 8 years to 3.5-5 years. The regime directly affects SolGold's Cascabel ($3.2B), CMOC's Cangrejos ($2.5B), Solaris' Warintza ($1.4B), and Dundee's Loma Larga ($312M).
Brent Surges Past $105/bbl — Ecuador Nets ~$50M in Extra March Revenue
Brent crude surged approximately 55% from late February levels to reach $105.85 per barrel by March 26, driven by escalating U.S./Israel-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping risk. Ecuador stands to capture roughly $50 million in extra March revenue from the price spike. However, domestic production challenges persist: January output of 466,400 barrels per day declined 1.8% year-over-year, while fuel theft from pipelines grew 20-fold between 2022 and 2024, with 770 illegal taps discovered versus 36 two years prior.
Colombia-Ecuador Lima Trade Talks Collapse — No Agreement on Tariffs, Electricity, or Pipeline Fees
Trade negotiations between Colombia and Ecuador held March 25-26 in Lima collapsed without agreement on the core disputes — tariffs, electricity pricing, and pipeline transit fees. The only outcome was a border security cooperation framework. Colombia exports $2.13 billion annually to Ecuador while Ecuador ships $863 million to Colombia, with both flows now subject to punitive reciprocal tariffs that show no signs of resolution.
Recent Updates
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project — 982M-Tonne Resource
BCE Projects 3.2% Inflation for 2026 as Diesel Subsidy Elimination Saves $1.1B Annually
Coca Codo Sinclair's 1,500 MW at Risk — Erosion Could Reach Intake by 2026
Lundin Gold Commits $100M Exploration Budget for 2026 — Fruta del Norte South Decision by H1
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time