Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project — 982M-Tonne Resource
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project in Imbabura province, valued at an estimated $3 billion. The deposit holds a 982-million-tonne resource capable of producing approximately 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender arrives at a strategic inflection point — weeks after the National Assembly's mining reform and Ecuador's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals Ministerial.
BCE Projects 3.2% Inflation for 2026 as Diesel Subsidy Elimination Saves $1.1B Annually
The Banco Central del Ecuador projects 3.2% inflation for 2026, driven primarily by the September 2025 diesel subsidy elimination that raised prices from $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon. The move generates an estimated $1.1 billion in annual fiscal savings but triggered a 31-day national strike. The government allocated $300 million in transport operator compensation and expanded housing subsidies to 55,000 new families to cushion the impact.
Coca Codo Sinclair's 1,500 MW at Risk — Erosion Could Reach Intake by 2026
Ecuador's 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant — which generates approximately 30% of national electricity — faces an existential erosion threat. The US Army Corps of Engineers has warned that progressive riverbed erosion, triggered by the 2020 collapse of San Rafael Waterfall, could reach the plant's water intake infrastructure by 2026. The government has deployed $17.3 million in emergency mitigation and leased three Turkish floating power plants as backup generation.
Lundin Gold Commits $100M Exploration Budget for 2026 — Fruta del Norte South Decision by H1
Lundin Gold has committed $100 million in exploration investment for 2026, targeting a development decision on the Fruta del Norte South satellite deposit by H1 and a mill expansion study (beyond 5,500 t/d) by H2. The company produced 498,315 ounces of gold in 2025 and guides 475,000-525,000 oz for 2026 at all-in sustaining costs of $1,110-1,170/oz. Ecuador's Decree 273 sliding royalty regime has added approximately $150/oz to the cost structure.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025, exporting $8.401 billion worth of product — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and surpassing crude oil as the country's top export for the first time. Total non-oil exports reached $29.402 billion (+18.3% YoY). U.S. countervailing duties on Indian shrimp have accelerated Ecuador's market share gains, and industry projections suggest volumes could exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2026.
U.S. Designates Ecuador as Strategic Minerals Source — Unlocks $10B in EXIM/DFC Financing
Ecuador was recognized as a strategic minerals source at the February 4, 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, attended by 54 nations. The designation unlocks access to up to $10 billion in U.S. EXIM Bank and DFC project financing for qualifying mining projects. Ecuador's heavy rare earth deposits, copper reserves, and gold resources were specifically cited. However, Chinese firms already control the country's three largest undeveloped mining projects, representing over $50 billion in combined resource value.
National Assembly Passes Mining Reform 77-70 — Environmental Permitting Overhauled
Ecuador's National Assembly passed comprehensive mining reform legislation on February 27, 2026, by a 77-70 vote. The law replaces the single environmental licensing system with a tiered authorization framework, establishes protected military zones covering approximately 400 illegal mining sites, and creates a formalization pathway for artisanal miners. Indigenous organization Ecuarunari has signaled it may challenge the law in the Constitutional Court, citing inadequate prior consultation.
Decree 273 Introduces Sliding Mining Royalties: 3%-5%-8% Scale Plus 100% Self-Power Mandate
Presidential Decree 273, signed December 31, 2025 and effective January 1, 2026, restructures Ecuador's mining royalty framework with a sliding scale tied to trailing three-year LME averages: 3% below reference, 5% at reference, 8% above. The decree also mandates 100% self-generated power for all mining operations — adding an estimated $150-400 million per project — and compresses exploration timelines from approximately 8 years to 3.5-5 years. The regime directly affects SolGold's Cascabel ($3.2B), CMOC's Cangrejos ($2.5B), Solaris' Warintza ($1.4B), and Dundee's Loma Larga ($312M).
Brent Surges Past $105/bbl — Ecuador Nets ~$50M in Extra March Revenue
Brent crude surged approximately 55% from late February levels to reach $105.85 per barrel by March 26, driven by escalating U.S./Israel-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping risk. Ecuador stands to capture roughly $50 million in extra March revenue from the price spike. However, domestic production challenges persist: January output of 466,400 barrels per day declined 1.8% year-over-year, while fuel theft from pipelines grew 20-fold between 2022 and 2024, with 770 illegal taps discovered versus 36 two years prior.
Colombia-Ecuador Lima Trade Talks Collapse — No Agreement on Tariffs, Electricity, or Pipeline Fees
Trade negotiations between Colombia and Ecuador held March 25-26 in Lima collapsed without agreement on the core disputes — tariffs, electricity pricing, and pipeline transit fees. The only outcome was a border security cooperation framework. Colombia exports $2.13 billion annually to Ecuador while Ecuador ships $863 million to Colombia, with both flows now subject to punitive reciprocal tariffs that show no signs of resolution.
BCE: Ecuador GDP Grew 3.7% in 2025 — Forecasts 1.8% for 2026
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed 3.7% GDP growth for 2025, a strong recovery from the 2.0% contraction in 2024. Exports expanded 6.4%, gross fixed investment rose 5.6%, and household consumption grew 2.7%. Sixteen of 20 economic sectors posted growth, led by financial activities (+9.8%), agriculture (+8.6%), and food manufacturing (+8.5%). The oil sector contracted 0.6%. For 2026, the BCE projects 1.8% growth — more conservative than the IMF's 2.0% and CEPAL's 2.1% forecasts.
Ecuador-U.S. Reciprocal Trade Agreement Signed March 13 — ~53% Non-Oil Exports Tariff-Free
The United States and Ecuador signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on March 13, 2026, granting tariff-free access for approximately 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports to the U.S. market — roughly $2.8 billion in annual trade value. The agreement covers shrimp, flowers, canned tuna, and other key export categories, positioning Ecuador as one of the few Latin American countries with preferential U.S. market access outside a full FTA.