Banco Central Revises 2026 Growth Projection to 2.5% — Up 0.7 Points From September Forecast

The Projection

The Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE) released its 2026 macroeconomic outlook, per El Universo (source).

Indicator	2025 Actual	2026 Projection	2027-2029 Avg
Real GDP growth	3.7%	2.5%	2.8%
Inflation (avg)	—	1.8%	—
Private credit growth	—	10.0%	—
External account	—	+$6.42B surplus	—

The 2.5% figure represents an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points from the September 2025 BCE forecast — "alza del 0,7 % con respecto a las previsiones de septiembre del 2025."

Material Deceleration from 2025

Going from 3.7% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026 is a 120 basis point slowdown. This is consistent with:

• Commodity price normalization from favorable 2025 levels
• Energy-sector drag (see separate Ecuador Brief on CENACE grid warnings)
• Tariff friction with Colombia (bilateral trade fell 44% in February 2026 alone)

Growth Drivers

The BCE cites three drivers of 2026 growth:

1. Non-oil exports ("exportaciones no petroleras")
2. Mining sector performance ("el desempeño del sector minero")
3. Remittances ("los flujos de remesas")

All three are structurally significant:

• Non-oil exports — shrimp, cacao, banana, flowers, tuna. Leveraging new bilateral agreements including SECA (South Korea).
• Mining — Mirador, Fruta del Norte, and pipeline concessions. Fruta del Norte production ramp and copper price environment both material.
• Remittances — Ecuadorian diaspora transfers, particularly from the US and Spain. A stable ~$5-6B annual inflow.

Risk Factors (BCE-Identified)

The BCE explicitly names three downside risks:

1. Energy crises ("posibles crisis energéticas") — already materializing in coastal blackouts
2. Commodity price volatility ("la volatilidad de los precios de los commodities")
3. Climate events, El Niño ("eventos climáticos como El Niño")

Of these, risk #1 (energy crises) is the most immediate — with blackouts of up to 12 hours on the coast this week and CENACE formally warning of further grid instability.

Financial Conditions Signal

Projected 10% private credit growth against 1.8% inflation implies real private-sector credit expansion of roughly 8% — a supportive signal for corporate CAPEX and SME lending.

Projected $6.42B external surplus indicates sustained external-account strength, reducing pressure on the dollarized regime and supporting the capacity for external debt rollovers.

Sector Implications by Industry

Sector	BCE Signal	Implication
Mining	Explicit growth driver	Favorable for concession development pipeline
Banking	10% credit growth forecast	Supportive for CFN and private bank loan books
Real estate	Moderate growth + credit expansion	Continued residential and select commercial demand
Energy	Listed as top risk	CAPEX acceleration urgency for grid and generation
Trade	Non-oil exports as driver	SECA (Korea), EU, US trade relationships key
Agriculture	Export-led growth	Commodity-exposed and vulnerable to El Niño

What to Watch

• Q1 2026 GDP print. The BCE's revised forecast assumes stable underlying momentum; Q1 data (typically released late May) will validate or challenge.
• Energy risk materialization. Whether coastal blackouts remain contained to Q2 2026 or extend into sustained grid unreliability affects both direct GDP and investor sentiment.
• Ecuador-Colombia tariff dynamics. Bilateral trade data for March-April 2026 will show whether the February 44% collapse was first-month shock or structural reset.
• Sovereign credit response. Fitch, Moody's, S&P sovereign actions in H1 2026 will reflect their own take on this trajectory.
• IMF Article IV. The next IMF consultation will provide an external counter-benchmark to the BCE's 2.5% projection.

Source: El Universo