Cenace Projects 18% Blackout Probability for October-March Dry Season

Ecuador's national grid operator Cenace has issued a risk assessment projecting an 18% probability of power supply deficits during the October 2026 to March 2027 dry season (estiaje). The projection assumes no restoration of Colombian energy imports and accounts for the chronic unreliability of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric facility.

Supply-Side Analysis

Colombian energy cutoff. Colombia suspended electricity sales to Ecuador on January 22, 2026, removing up to 450 MW of cross-border transmission capacity — approximately 10% of Ecuador's average daily demand. The suspension is part of the broader bilateral dispute over border security policy.

Coca Codo Sinclair instability. Ecuador's largest hydroelectric plant recorded 33 operational shutdowns in 2025, with forced stoppages occurring at minimum monthly from April onward. The root cause is sediment loading: heavy rainfall drives particulate matter into the Coca River intake system, exceeding turbine tolerances and forcing emergency shutdowns.

Government Response

The Noboa administration has deployed three mitigation strategies:

1. Diesel thermal plant rentals. Six diesel-fired generation units are being contracted. Diesel generation is the most expensive source in Ecuador's energy matrix, with costs significantly above hydroelectric baseload
2. Demand-side management. Industrial disconnection requests have been issued to mining operations, steel manufacturers, and other large consumers
3. Debt issuance. A dedicated debt emission has been announced to fund emergency energy infrastructure procurement

Economic Impact Modeling

Cenace has modeled three scenarios based on hydrological conditions:

The base case alone exceeds the annual operating budget of several mid-tier state agencies. The extreme drought scenario would represent a material impact on GDP growth.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 reservoir levels. Hydrological data from July-September will determine whether the 18% probability holds or shifts
• Diesel procurement costs. Contract terms for the six thermal plants will reveal the fiscal premium of emergency generation versus planned infrastructure investment
• Colombia diplomatic track. Any restoration of cross-border energy trade would materially reduce blackout probability. Monitor bilateral security cooperation announcements
• Coca Codo Sinclair sediment mitigation. Whether Petroecuador or the energy ministry commits capital to addressing the chronic intake sedimentation problem
• Industrial output data. Mandatory disconnections for mining and steel producers will appear in Q2-Q3 industrial production figures

Source: Primicias, citing Cenace data