Ecuador's 920 MW Thermal Plan: $696 Million Committed, 490 MW in Unfulfilled Prior Commitments
Ecuador's government announced on April 20 plans to incorporate 920 MW of thermal generation capacity in 2026, the latest in a series of evolving energy targets.
The Plan
| Component | Capacity | Investment |
|---|---|---|
| Generation rental (fast-install) | 525 MW | $315.54 million |
| Equipment purchase & replacement | 395 MW | $381.30 million |
| Total | 920 MW | $696.84 million |
Separately, the Plan de Expansión de Generación 2023–2032 (Master Expansion Plan) targets an additional 509 MW from hydroelectric, thermal, and non-conventional renewable energy sources for 2026.
Current Interim Solutions
| Source | Capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Three barges | 300 MW (combined) | Operational |
| El Descanso II thermal | ~17 MW | Operational |
| Vesubio thermal | ~17 MW | Operational |
| Esmeraldas III (partial) | 30 MW (of failed 91 MW project) | In plan |
| Total active | ~334 MW | — |
Unfulfilled Commitments
Two major prior commitments remain unconcretized:
- 260 MW rental at Pascuales
- 230 MW barge rental
Total unfulfilled: ~490 MW — more than half the new 920 MW target.
The Credibility Problem
Energy sector analyst Fernando Salinas characterized the situation: "Political discourse dominates rather than planning of a strategic sector."
Engineer Marco Acuña noted that contracted generation facilities could take at least one year to deliver, and larger projects longer.
The government has revised its energy capacity target three times in five months — raising questions about institutional planning capacity within Celec (Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador) and Cenace (Operador Nacional de Electricidad).
Demand Context
| Date | Demand |
|---|---|
| Normal average | 4,200 MW |
| March 18, 2026 | 5,274 MW |
| April 10, 2026 | 5,333 MW |
| April 14, 2026 | 5,374 MW (record) |
| Annual growth rate | 4–5% |
Demand growth is driven by data centers and sector electrification. The 28% gap between normal average and peak demand represents the margin that must be covered by dispatchable generation.
What to Watch
- Contract execution timelines. The 525 MW rental program is the fastest path to capacity. Monitor contract awards and commissioning dates — any slippage compresses the window before the July–November dry season
- Mazar and Amaluza reservoir levels. Both reservoirs are declining (Mazar at 2,131m, 16m above critical; Amaluza at 1,981m, 6m above minimum). If the dry season accelerates decline, thermal backup becomes critical sooner
- 490 MW unfulfilled commitments. Pascuales (260 MW) and the barge rental (230 MW) were announced previously. Their continued non-delivery may equally affect the new 920 MW target
- Esmeraldas III status. Only 30 MW of a failed 91 MW project is included. The original project's shortfall represents unrecovered capacity investment
Source: Expreso
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