Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
ANECACAO Projection: 623,000+ MT in 2026
The Asociación Nacional de Exportadores de Cacao del Ecuador (ANECACAO) projects Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, marking an 11.3% increase from the 560,000 MT shipped in 2025. The projection is based on expanding cultivation area, improved yields from CCN-51 hybrid varieties, and sustained global demand.
| Export Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (Projection) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (MT) | 420,000 | 480,000 | 560,000 | 623,000+ |
| Year-over-year growth | +15% | +14.3% | +16.7% | +11.3% |
| Export value | $1.8 billion | $4.7 billion | $4.7 billion | TBD (price-dependent) |
| Average price ($/MT) | $4,286 | $9,792 | $8,393 | ~$3,000-4,000 |
The Path to #2: Overtaking Ghana
Ecuador's cocoa output has been rising steadily while Ghana's has been declining due to swollen shoot virus, aging tree stock, and illegal mining encroachment on farmland:
| Country | 2023/24 Output | 2024/25 Output | 2025/26 Projection | Global Share (2025/26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire | 1.80 million MT | 2.20 million MT | 2.10 million MT | 38% |
| Ghana | 450,000 MT | 600,000 MT | 580,000 MT | 11% |
| Ecuador | 480,000 MT | 560,000 MT | 623,000+ MT | 11.5% |
| Cameroon | 300,000 MT | 320,000 MT | 330,000 MT | 6% |
| Indonesia | 280,000 MT | 260,000 MT | 250,000 MT | 4.5% |
| Global total | 4.40 million MT | 5.10 million MT | 5.40 million MT | 100% |
The crossover between Ecuador and Ghana is expected to occur in the 2025/26 marketing year, with Ecuador's volume advantage growing in subsequent seasons as its plantation base continues expanding.
The Price-Volume Disconnect
Ecuador faces a challenging volume-up, price-down dynamic:
| Price Period | International Price ($/MT) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 (peak) | ~$9,000 | Global deficit, West African crop failure |
| October 2025 | ~$6,500 | Supply recovery beginning |
| January 2026 | ~$4,200 | Surplus emerging |
| February 2026 | ~$3,050 | Global surplus confirmed |
| 2026 average (forecast) | $3,000-4,000 | Supply normalization |
At an average export price of $3,500/MT, Ecuador's 623,000 MT would generate approximately $2.18 billion in cocoa export revenue — a 54% decline from 2025's $4.7 billion despite shipping 11.3% more volume.
| Revenue Scenario | Volume | Average Price | Total Revenue | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear case | 623,000 MT | $3,000/MT | $1.87 billion | -60% |
| Base case | 623,000 MT | $3,500/MT | $2.18 billion | -54% |
| Bull case | 623,000 MT | $4,500/MT | $2.80 billion | -40% |
Ecuador's Cocoa Varieties: The Fine Flavor Advantage
Ecuador's Nacional (Arriba) variety — classified as fine flavor cocoa by the ICCO — commands a $200-400/MT premium over bulk commodity cocoa:
| Variety | Share of Ecuador Production | Typical Premium | Main Markets | Flavor Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCN-51 | 70% | None (commodity) | Bulk grinding, China, Malaysia | Robust, high yield |
| Nacional (Arriba) | 25% | +$200-400/MT | EU, US, Japan | Floral, fruity, complex |
| Fine blends | 5% | +$500-1,000/MT | Artisanal chocolate | Single-origin premium |
Ecuador accounts for approximately 56% of global fine flavor cocoa production, a position that provides some insulation from commodity price crashes for the Nacional segment.
Growing Regions
| Province | Production (est. MT) | Share | Dominant Variety |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Ríos | 170,000 | 27% | CCN-51 |
| Guayas | 135,000 | 22% | CCN-51 + Nacional |
| Manabí | 95,000 | 15% | Nacional |
| Esmeraldas | 85,000 | 14% | CCN-51 |
| El Oro | 50,000 | 8% | CCN-51 |
| Other | 88,000 | 14% | Mixed |
| Total | 623,000 | 100% |
What to Watch
Track monthly ANECACAO export data — the pace of shipments in Q1 2026 will validate or challenge the 623,000 MT projection. Monitor international cocoa futures on ICE — any sustained recovery above $4,000/MT would significantly improve Ecuador's revenue outlook. Watch Ecuador-China trade data — China has become an increasingly important buyer of CCN-51 and volume shifts to the Chinese market will affect pricing dynamics. Track Nacional premium differentials — if the premium widens during a price crash, it would validate Ecuador's fine flavor positioning strategy. Monitor AGROCALIDAD phytosanitary export data — any pest or disease outbreaks could constrain export volumes.
Sources: Reuters / ANECACAO / ICCO
Source
Reuters / ANECACAO — “Ecuador cocoa exports to exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, Anecacao estimates”
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