Ecuador Country Risk Falls to 404 Points �� Lowest Since 2015, Down 66% Year-Over-Year
Key Indicator
Ecuador's country risk index fell to 404 basis points as of April 22, 2026, per the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE). This represents:
- 11-year low (lowest since 2015)
- 66% decline from 1,186 points at the start of 2025
- 83-point drop in April 2026 alone
- Historical peak: 6,063 points (March 23, 2020)
Finance Minister Sariha Moya: "The confidence of international investors towards Ecuador is reflected in constant country risk reduction."
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Period | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 3.7% | 2025 | Above multilateral forecasts |
| Trade surplus | $6.227B | 2025 | — |
| Non-petroleum export surplus | $5.032B | 2025 | +$1.316B vs 2024 |
| Inflation | 1.91% | 2025 | Among lowest in LatAm |
| International reserves | $9.795B | Dec 2025 | +42% vs Dec 2024 ($6.899B) |
| Adequate employment | 37% | Dec 2025 | +4 pts vs Dec 2024 |
| Extreme poverty | 21.4% | 2025 | -6.6 pts vs 2024 |
| Poverty rate | 8.3% | 2025 | -4.4 pts vs 2024 |
IMF Facility Status
The fifth review under Ecuador's approximately $5 billion IMF program was completed on April 22, unlocking a $394 million disbursement. Total 2026 transfers: approximately $3.7 billion. Four reviews remain, potentially unlocking an additional $1.276 billion through 2028.
The program carries fiscal conditions including revenue-side measures (see separate IVA expansion coverage) and spending constraints.
Context and Limitations
The trajectory is unambiguously positive. However, 404 basis points would still be considered elevated by investment-grade standards — comparable credits in the region trade tighter.
Adequate employment improved to 37% but remains structurally low. The non-petroleum export surplus ($5.032B) is the more durable indicator — it suggests diversification beyond oil is producing results, not just favorable commodity cycles.
What to Watch
- Sub-400 threshold. A sustained move below 400 bps would represent the strongest credit signal since pre-2015 and could catalyze institutional interest in Ecuadorian sovereign paper.
- IMF review cadence. Four reviews remain; any missed target would stall disbursements and likely reverse risk compression.
- Non-petroleum export composition. The $5.032B surplus deserves disaggregation — shrimp, cacao, and banana contributions by share will clarify whether diversification is broad-based or concentrated.
- Dollarization stability. Country risk at 404 effectively removes any credible dollarization-exit scenario from the pricing of Ecuadorian assets.
Sources: El Universo, El Telégrafo, Primicias
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