Ecuador Enters a September Dry Season With a 450 MW November Deficit Risk

Ecuador's next hydroelectric dry season is expected to begin in September 2026 and run approximately through March 2027, according to Vice Minister of Electricity Javier Medina, as reported by Primicias on August 21, 2026. The operating issue is not only the seasonal decline in hydro generation; it is whether contracted replacement capacity arrives in time.

System exposure before the dry season

Hydroelectric generation supplied 76% of Ecuador's demand between August 1 and August 19, 2026. Thermoelectric generation supplied 20.4%, with the balance coming from Colombian imports and non-traditional generation including wind and solar.

The seasonal shift would reduce hydro output and require more thermal generation or imports from Colombia. That external option has its own risk: the report says El Nino creates a possibility that Colombia could face an electricity deficit in late 2026.

Cenace's planning case

The National Electricity Operator, Cenace, projects a possible deficit of up to 450 megawatts in November 2026, the month expected to bring the most severe dry-season conditions.

For October 2026 through March 2027, Cenace estimates a 2% probability of a deficit in at least one month. That estimate assumes the government meets its expansion schedule for 1,092.1 MW of additional generation capacity between June 2026 and August 2027. At least 490 MW of that capacity would need to be operational by November.

The schedule is already under pressure. Medina said only 50 to 85 MW of new rented thermal capacity is likely to enter operation by December 2026, while 115 to 150 MW could arrive in the first half of 2027. These figures are materially below the capacity the November scenario assumes should be in place.

Barge-contract exposure

Ecuador has renewed the contract for the Turkish barge Murat Bey, which contributes 100 MW. The renewal process for Emre Bey, which contributed another 100 MW, was suspended in May. A July process for the third barge, Erin Sultan, also known as Esclusas V, is suspended according to the public procurement portal.

What to watch

The key indicators are not simply rainfall totals. They are the amount of thermal capacity that reaches operation by December, the status of the suspended barge processes, Colombian availability, and whether the 490 MW November milestone is met. The report does not establish a confirmed outage schedule; it describes a conditional system-risk scenario.

Source: Primicias