Ecuador Retail Sales Hit $20.4 Billion in January 2026 — Up 6.8% — as Construction Surges 21% and Administrative Services Jump 22%

$20.4 Billion in January Sales

Ecuador's economy generated $20.39 billion in retail sales during January 2026, a 6.8% year-over-year increase that added $1.29 billion in new economic activity compared to January 2025's $19.1 billion, according to data from the Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI).

The SRI stated that the figures "confirm a start of the year with greater economic activity and productive growth," attributing the performance to government economic policies and the broader recovery from the 2024-2025 contraction.

Year-over-year comparison

Metric	January 2025	January 2026	Change
Total retail sales	$19.10B	$20.39B	+6.8%
Dollar increase	—	—	+$1.29B
Full year 2025 sales	—	$265B+	+8.2% for full year

Sector Performance

Growth was broadly distributed, with construction and services sectors outperforming the headline rate:

Sector	January 2026 Sales	YoY Growth
Commerce	$8.33B	+7.0%
Professional services	$706M	+12.5%
Construction	$395M	+20.9%
Administrative services	$370M	+22.3%
Real estate	$295M	+21.1%

Key observations

Commerce remains the dominant sector at $8.33 billion — representing 40.9% of all retail activity. Its 7% growth rate, while below the headline-grabbing construction and services numbers, translates to the largest absolute dollar increase: approximately $544 million in new commerce activity.

Construction's 21% surge aligns with the government's $46.3 billion 2026 budget, which allocates $2.2 billion for public investment across 388 infrastructure projects. The sector is forecast to grow 4.1% for the full year, suggesting the January spike reflects early-year procurement acceleration.

Administrative services (+22.3%) and real estate (+21.1%) together signal strong business formation and property transaction activity — indicators of investor confidence in Ecuador's medium-term outlook.

Recovery Context

The January data extends a recovery trajectory that began in late 2025 after two major economic shocks:

Shock	Impact	Recovery
2024 power crisis	Nationwide electricity rationing; industrial output reduced	Resolved with thermal generation + Colombian imports (now suspended)
2024-2025 contraction	GDP growth slowed; consumer spending compressed	$265B+ in 2025 sales (+8.2%) signals full recovery

The 6.8% January growth comfortably exceeds the 2.0-2.1% GDP growth forecast for 2026, suggesting the consumer economy is outpacing the broader macro outlook. However, inflation has also accelerated — reaching 2.44% in January 2026, up from 1.91% in December 2025 — the sharpest rise since May 2024.

Inflation by category

Category	January 2026 Inflation	CPI Weight
Housing & utilities	20.79%	Significant
Healthcare	3.13%	Moderate
Restaurants & hotels	1.47%	Moderate
Food & beverages	2.09%	25.1% (largest)

The food and beverages category — weighted at 25.1% of the CPI basket — is particularly relevant given the rice market instability addressed by Executive Decree 307.

What to Watch

Track February and March sales data for confirmation that the January surge is sustained rather than seasonal. Monitor construction sector activity through the year to assess whether the 21% January growth reflects genuine infrastructure acceleration or front-loaded procurement. Watch inflation trends — if price increases outpace nominal sales growth, real consumer purchasing power may be declining despite headline gains. Track auto sales data separately — January 2026 already showed a 37% surge (covered previously), which feeds into the broader commerce figure.

Sources: El Comercio, Primicias, El Universo, SRI