January 2026 Trade Balance: $630M Surplus; Non-Oil Exports Turn Structurally Positive
January 2026 Results
Ecuador's January 2026 trade balance came in at a surplus of $630.21 million, driven by total exports of $3,100.87 million against total imports of $2,470.67 million. The data, published by the Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE), confirms the continuation of a structural shift in Ecuador's trade profile that has been building since mid-2024.
| Component | January 2026 | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Total exports | $3,100.87M | USD |
| Total imports | $2,470.67M | USD |
| Total trade balance | +$630.21M | USD |
| Oil exports | ~$1,100M | USD (est.) |
| Oil imports | ~$870M | USD (est.) |
| Oil trade balance | +$226.64M | USD (est.) |
| Non-oil exports | ~$2,000M | USD (est.) |
| Non-oil imports | ~$1,600M | USD (est.) |
| Non-oil trade balance | +$403.57M | USD |
The Non-Oil Structural Shift
The headline figure is the non-oil trade balance of +$403.57 million — a number that would have been inconceivable three years ago. Ecuador's non-oil trade balance was structurally deficitario for decades, routinely posting monthly deficits of -$300M to -$400M during 2021-2022 as import demand outstripped non-oil export capacity.
The reversal reflects two concurrent trends: rapid non-oil export growth and import moderation.
| Period | Non-Oil Balance (monthly avg.) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | -$250M/month | Structural deficit |
| 2020 | -$180M/month | Pandemic import compression |
| 2021 | -$350M/month | Import rebound, deficit widens |
| 2022 | -$400M/month | Worst period |
| 2023 | -$150M/month | Export growth begins |
| 2024 | +$50M/month | First sustained surplus |
| January 2026 | +$403.57M | Structural positive |
Export Basket Composition
Ecuador's export engine has diversified significantly, with total monthly exports now consistently exceeding $3 billion — up from approximately $1,800M/month in 2021.
The top non-oil export categories driving the surplus:
| Product | Est. Monthly Value | YoY Growth (est.) | Key Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrimp | $600-700M | +15% | China, U.S., EU |
| Bananas | $350-400M | +8% | EU, Russia, U.S. |
| Cacao & derivatives | $200-250M | +25% | EU, U.S., Indonesia |
| Cut flowers | $150-180M | +10% | U.S., EU, Russia |
| Canned tuna & fish | $120-140M | +12% | EU, U.S., LatAm |
| Coffee | $40-50M | +20% | EU, U.S. |
| Other | $200-250M | — | Various |
Shrimp remains the dominant non-oil export, with Ecuador now the world's largest shrimp exporter, having overtaken India and Vietnam. The China market has been transformative — Chinese demand for Ecuadorian white shrimp has grown approximately 400% since 2019, driven by the Ecuador-China FTA (operational since May 2024) and growing Chinese consumer preference for Latin American seafood.
Cacao has been the fastest-growing category, benefiting from record global cocoa prices (above $8,000/MT in early 2026, vs. ~$2,500/MT historically) and Ecuador's positioning as a fine-flavor cacao origin (65%+ of global fine-flavor supply).
Import Structure
Imports of $2,470.67 million reflect Ecuador's structural import dependencies:
| Category | Est. Monthly Value |
|---|---|
| Fuel & refined petroleum | $700-800M |
| Capital goods & machinery | $400-450M |
| Consumer goods | $350-400M |
| Raw materials (industrial) | $300-350M |
| Transportation equipment | $200-250M |
| Other | $200-250M |
Despite being a net crude oil exporter, Ecuador remains a net refined petroleum importer due to insufficient domestic refining capacity (~175,000 bpd vs. ~250,000 bpd demand). Refined fuel imports represent the single largest import category.
Trade Agreement Tailwinds
The trade balance improvement coincides with Ecuador's aggressive expansion of preferential market access:
| Agreement | Status | Impact on Non-Oil Exports |
|---|---|---|
| EU Trade Agreement | Operational (2017) | Tariff-free bananas, shrimp, cacao |
| China FTA | Operational (May 2024) | Shrimp, bananas, cacao access |
| EFTA FTA | Operational (2020) | European premium markets |
| Canada FTA | Effective (2025) | Diversification |
| U.S. ART | Signed March 13, 2026 | $2.786B in non-oil exports covered |
| UAE CEPA | Signed March 2026 | Gulf market access |
The U.S. ART, signed on March 13, is expected to further accelerate the non-oil surplus by eliminating surcharges on 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports to the United States — approximately $2.786 billion annually. Full implementation could add $200-400 million in annual export value through improved price competitiveness.
What to Watch
- February-March trade data — whether the $630M surplus is sustained or January was an outlier driven by seasonal shrimp shipments to China (pre-Lunar New Year inventory building)
- U.S. ART implementation — tariff elimination timelines will determine when the trade agreement's export boost materializes
- Global cocoa prices — if prices remain above $7,000/MT, Ecuador's cacao export revenues could exceed $3B annually for the first time
- Refined fuel import bill — crude price movements directly affect Ecuador's import bill; a sustained WTI above $75 would compress the trade surplus
- China-Ecuador shrimp volumes — monthly customs data from China will indicate whether growth rates are accelerating or plateauing post-FTA
Sources: Fideval, Diario Democracia, BCE
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