Mazar Reservoir at 2,137 m.s.n.m. — 23-28 Meters Above 2024 Same-Period; Hydro Mix at 72.3% of Generation

Reservoir Status (16 April 2026)

Metric	Value
Current level	~2,137 m.s.n.m.
Stored energy capacity	~61%
Above 2024 same-period	+23 to +28 meters
Maximum capacity (level)	2,153 m.s.n.m.
Minimum operating	2,098 m.s.n.m.
Storage volume	410 million m³
Reservoir length	31 km
Daytime rainfall probability (forecast)	88%

Source: El Universo (link).

Energy Minister Inés Manzano: "Estamos bien con el tema de generación eléctrica, tenemos agua."

Generation Mix (16 April 2026)

Source	% of National Output
Hydroelectric (total)	72.3%
— Coca Codo Sinclair	~40% of hydro = ~28.9% national
— Paute Molino	~19% of hydro = ~13.7% national
— Other hydro	~41% of hydro = ~29.7% national
Thermal + renewable	~27.7% national

Operational Significance

Mazar serves as the storage reservoir feeding the Paute Molino (1,100 MW) downstream. Paute can only generate as long as Mazar releases water. Mazar level is the binding constraint on Paute throughput across the dry season.

2024 dry-season precedent: Mazar levels dropped through October-December 2023, forcing nationwide rolling blackouts that extended through 2024. The +23-28m differential vs 2024 same-period reflects favorable wet-season recharge through Q1 2026.

The 88% probability daytime rainfall forecast for 16 April supports continued recharge.

Context: Coastal Grid Stress

While generation supply is currently adequate (Mazar buffer + 72.3% hydro mix), the operational stress in the Ecuadorian system is on the transmission and distribution side, not generation:

• April 14 historic peak demand: 5,374 MW (see prior CENACE blackout warning brief)
• Coastal CNEL feeder failures (Mallorca/Cataluña, Daule corridor)
• Heat-wave-driven AC demand exceeds local distribution capacity

Mazar adequacy is a generation-side positive but does not address coastal transmission constraints.

Implications

Generation outlook Q2-Q3 2026: Constructive. Mazar buffer + entering Sierra dry season at higher level than 2024 reduces probability of a repeat 2024-style nationwide load shedding event.

Risk through Q4 2026: September-November Mazar trajectory is the leading indicator. Below 2,120 m.s.n.m. by mid-September would trigger conservation operations.

Coca Codo Sinclair concentration: With Coca Codo providing ~40% of hydro generation, the April 17 acceptance and PowerChina O&M handover (separate brief) is operationally adjacent. Distribuidor failure event would shift load disproportionately to Mazar/Paute and thermal.

Sector-specific:

• Industrial users (Guayaquil port, El Oro mining, manufacturing): Generation adequacy supports operational continuity; coastal distribution remains the binding constraint
• Mining operations (Mirador, Fruta del Norte): Located in Amazon corridor, less exposed to coastal feeder issues; generation mix supports continuity
• Telecoms / fintech (data centers): Generation supply adequate; backup power requirements driven by distribution-side risk

What to Watch

• Daily Mazar level updates (Ministerio de Energía / CENACE)
• Q3 2026 dry-season trajectory: September-October readings
• Coca Codo Sinclair acceptance + PowerChina O&M operational handover (May 2026)
• Thermal generation utilization rates: Backup capacity availability vs cost
• Colombian electricity trade: Diplomatic friction has suspended bilateral electrical transfers; Mazar adequacy reduces import dependency but creates strategic vulnerability if multiple hydro assets offline simultaneously
• CNEL distribution-side investment announcements: Generation adequacy without distribution capex resolution leaves coastal blackout risk intact

Source: El Universo