U.S. Countervailing Duty Review on Ecuadorian Shrimp — Preliminary Results March 10

The Review

The U.S. Department of Commerce published preliminary results on March 10, 2026 in its countervailing duty (CVD) review on warm-water shrimp from Ecuador. The review, published in the Federal Register, examines whether Ecuadorian government programs constitute actionable subsidies that warrant offsetting duties on shrimp imports.

The review covers approximately $1.2 billion in annual Ecuadorian shrimp exports to the United States — making it one of the most commercially significant CVD actions affecting Ecuador.

Programs Under Review

Alleged Subsidy Program	Description
Tax incentives	Special economic zone tax benefits for aquaculture exporters
Preferential financing	Below-market-rate loans from CFN (Corporación Financiera Nacional)
Infrastructure support	Government-funded port and road infrastructure benefiting shrimp exporters
Energy subsidies	Below-cost electricity rates for industrial users
Export promotion	ProEcuador funding for international market development

CVD Process Timeline

Stage	Date
Investigation initiation	2025
Preliminary results	March 10, 2026
Comment period	30 days post-publication
Verification	Q2 2026
Final determination	~September 2026
ITC injury determination	~November 2026

The preliminary results establish tentative subsidy rates that may be applied as provisional duties. The final determination, expected around September 2026, will set the definitive duty rates.

Interaction with ART

The CVD review creates a complex dynamic with the U.S.-Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed on March 13:

• The ART eliminates tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp entering the U.S. market
• CVD duties are separate from tariffs — they are remedial measures designed to offset specific government subsidies
• A favorable ART tariff rate can be partially or fully offset by CVD duties if the Commerce Department finds actionable subsidies
• The net effect for Ecuadorian exporters depends on the CVD rate vs. the tariff reduction — if CVD duties exceed the tariff savings, the ART's benefit to the shrimp sector is diminished

Industry Response

The Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura (CNA) has engaged Washington-based trade counsel to respond to the preliminary findings. Ecuador's defense centers on arguing that:

• Government programs cited are generally available to all industries, not specifically targeted at shrimp
• Infrastructure investment serves broad economic development, not shrimp sector subsidization
• CFN lending rates reflect market conditions for Ecuador's risk profile, not preferential terms

What to Watch

• Preliminary duty rate — the specific subsidy rate percentage will determine the immediate commercial impact; rates below 5% are manageable, while double-digit rates would significantly affect competitiveness
• Final determination timeline — the September 2026 target could slip, extending uncertainty
• Competitor dynamics — India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are also subject to U.S. CVD/antidumping actions on shrimp; Ecuador's relative position depends on comparative duty rates
• Government response — whether Ecuador modifies any programs identified as actionable subsidies to reduce future CVD exposure

Sources: Federal Register