World Bank: Ecuador GDP Growth at 2.0% — Below Regional Average of 2.4%
The Forecasts
The World Bank's latest economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean places Ecuador's 2026 GDP growth at 2.0% — a figure that, while representing continued expansion, positions the country below the regional average and among the slower-growing economies in South America.
The multilateral consensus has narrowed:
| Institution | 2026 GDP Growth Forecast | Date of Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank | 2.0% | March 2026 |
| IMF | 2.0% | January 2026 |
| CEPAL | 2.1% | February 2026 |
| BCE (Central Bank) | 1.8% | February 2026 |
| Consensus (average) | 2.0% | — |
The BCE's more conservative 1.8% estimate reflects the central bank's incorporation of the security crisis's fiscal costs and its impact on domestic investment sentiment.
Regional Comparison
Ecuador's growth trajectory sits in the lower tier of Latin American performance:
| Country/Region | 2026 GDP Growth | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Guyana | 21.0%+ | Oil production ramp-up (Stabroek block) |
| Caribbean (avg.) | 8.2% | Guyana effect, tourism recovery |
| Central America (avg.) | 3.0% | Remittances, nearshoring |
| Paraguay | 3.8% | Agriculture, energy exports |
| Colombia | 2.7% | Post-adjustment recovery |
| Peru | 2.6% | Mining investment, copper |
| South America (avg.) | 2.4% | — |
| Chile | 2.3% | Lithium, copper, services |
| Brazil | 2.2% | Fiscal consolidation drag |
| Ecuador | 2.0% | Security crisis, infrastructure gaps |
| Argentina | 1.5% | Post-Milei adjustment |
| Bolivia | 1.2% | Gas depletion, fiscal crisis |
Ecuador outperforms only Argentina and Bolivia among South American economies — both of which face acute structural crises.
Growth Drivers and Headwinds
Positive Factors
Record international reserves of $11.94 billion (as of March 13, 2026) provide macroeconomic stability and signal growing investor confidence in Ecuador's dollarized framework. Reserves have increased by $7.4 billion in approximately 27 months.
Non-oil trade balance turned positive at +$403.57 million in January 2026, reflecting structural diversification of the export basket into shrimp, bananas, cacao, flowers, and tuna.
Risk country has stabilized at approximately 485 basis points — down from approximately 2,000 basis points in April 2025 — reducing the cost of external financing.
Remittances continue to grow, estimated at 5%+ of GDP, providing a consumption floor for household spending.
Inflation remains subdued at an estimated ~1.5% for 2026, anchored by dollarization.
Structural Headwinds
Security crisis costs: The government estimates direct and indirect costs of the security crisis at 1.5-2.0% of GDP annually, including military/police spending, lost productivity, reduced foreign direct investment, and tourism decline. The 2025 homicide rate of 51 per 100,000 is the highest in Ecuador's history.
Infrastructure gaps: Ecuador's power grid experienced rolling blackouts in late 2024 and early 2025 due to drought-impacted hydroelectric generation. The $2.43 billion power expansion plan addresses this but capital deployment timelines extend to 2028-2030.
Political uncertainty: The 2025 election cycle and the Noboa administration's reliance on emergency decree governance create regulatory unpredictability for medium-term investment planning.
Fiscal constraints: Despite improved reserves, the government's fiscal position remains tight. Debt-to-GDP stands at approximately 57%, and the IMF framework imposes spending discipline that limits counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus.
Key Macro Indicators
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (est.) | 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.0% | 1.0-1.5% | 2.0% |
| Inflation | 1.3% | 1.7% | ~1.5% |
| Reserves ($B) | $9.8B | $10.5B | $11.9B+ |
| Risk country (bps) | ~1,200 | ~600 | ~485 |
| Debt-to-GDP | 55% | 57% | ~57% |
| Remittances (% of GDP) | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5%+ |
| Non-oil trade balance | -$200M/mo avg | +$100M/mo avg | +$400M/mo (Jan) |
What to Watch
- Q1 2026 GDP data — the BCE will publish preliminary figures in May; strong oil production and export data could push the annual figure above 2.0%
- Security spending trajectory — whether the curfew deployments and joint U.S. operations reduce violence metrics enough to lower the GDP drag estimate
- Trade agreement implementation — the U.S. ART and UAE CEPA could contribute 0.2-0.5 percentage points of additional growth if implementation proceeds on schedule
- Oil production targets — Petroecuador's push to 380,000+ bpd would boost export revenues and fiscal receipts
- Moody's follow-up — after the January 2026 upgrade to Caa1, further positive action would lower borrowing costs and support growth
Sources: Primicias, World Bank, IMF, CEPAL, BCE