Cocoa Prices Crash Below $3,100/Ton From Record Highs as 287,000-Tonne Global Surplus Emerges — Ecuador Positioned to Become World's No. 2 Producer

Price Collapse From Record Highs

Global cocoa futures have fallen below $3,100 per metric ton as of late February 2026, representing a collapse of approximately 70-75% from the record highs above $11,000/ton reached during the 2024-2025 supply crisis. The crash reflects a fundamental shift in the global supply-demand balance as West African production recovers and new plantings in Latin America and Asia come into maturity.

Price History

Period	Price ($/MT)	Context
2023 average	~$3,400	Pre-crisis baseline
Early 2024	~$5,500	West Africa drought impact begins
Mid-2024 peak	~$11,200	Record high — Ghana/Ivory Coast crop failure
Late 2025	~$5,800	Partial recovery in West African supply
February 2026	<$3,100	Surplus emerges, prices below 2023 levels

The speed of the decline — from $11,200 to below $3,100 in approximately 18 months — has caught many market participants off guard, particularly speculative funds that had built large long positions during the 2024 price surge.

The 287,000-Tonne Surplus

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) and private analysts project a 287,000-tonne surplus for the 2025/26 crop year, the first meaningful surplus after two consecutive deficit years:

Supply-Demand Balance	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26 (Proj.)
Global production	4.33 million MT	4.55 million MT	4.98 million MT
Global grindings	4.65 million MT	4.70 million MT	4.69 million MT
Balance	-320,000 MT	-150,000 MT	+287,000 MT
Stocks-to-grindings ratio	28.4%	25.1%	31.2%

The surplus is driven primarily by West African production recovery — particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for approximately 60% of global supply — combined with demand destruction caused by two years of elevated prices that forced chocolate manufacturers to reduce cocoa content and raise retail prices.

Ecuador's Ascent to No. 2

Ecuador is projected to produce 650,000+ metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year, positioning it to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer behind Ivory Coast:

Country	2024/25 Output	2026/27 (Proj.)	Yield (kg/ha)	Global Share
Ivory Coast	2.10 million MT	2.25 million MT	550	~45%
Ghana	620,000 MT	600,000 MT	400	~12%
Ecuador	580,000 MT	650,000+ MT	800	~13%
Cameroon	300,000 MT	310,000 MT	450	~6%
Indonesia	250,000 MT	260,000 MT	500	~5%

Ecuador's yield advantage is striking: at 800 kg/ha, Ecuadorian plantations produce double the output per hectare of Ghanaian farms (400 kg/ha). This productivity differential reflects several factors:

• CCN-51 variety dominance: Ecuador's widespread adoption of the high-yielding CCN-51 hybrid, which produces significantly more than traditional Nacional or West African varieties
• Younger tree stock: Ecuador has undergone a planting boom in the last decade, meaning its tree population is younger and more productive
• Climate advantages: Consistent rainfall patterns in the Los Rios, Guayas, and Esmeraldas growing regions
• Intensive farming practices: Higher input use including fertilizer, irrigation, and pest management

Revenue Impact Analysis

The price crash creates a double-edged financial equation for Ecuador's cacao sector:

Metric	2024/25	2026/27 (Proj.)	Change
Volume	580,000 MT	650,000+ MT	+12%
Average price	~$6,500/MT	~$3,000/MT	-54%
Gross export revenue	~$3.77 billion	~$1.95 billion	-48%

Despite a 12% increase in volume, the 54% price decline could reduce Ecuador's cocoa export revenue by approximately $1.8 billion — a significant blow to a sector that contributed substantially to the record $29.4 billion non-oil export total in 2025.

However, these projections assume prices remain near current levels. Many analysts expect a partial recovery to the $3,500-4,500 range as the surplus is absorbed and speculative short positions are unwound.

Fine Flavor vs. Bulk Production

Ecuador's cocoa industry operates across two distinct market segments:

Segment	Variety	Share of Output	Price Premium	Primary Markets
Fine flavor (Arriba Nacional)	Nacional	~25%	+30-50% vs. bulk	EU, Japan, specialty chocolate
Bulk/commodity	CCN-51	~75%	Standard market price	Global grinding, mass market

The fine flavor segment is partially insulated from the price crash because specialty chocolate manufacturers pay significant premiums for Arriba Nacional beans — prized for their floral, fruity flavor profile. Ecuador is the world's largest producer of fine-flavor cocoa, designated as such by the ICCO.

However, the CCN-51 bulk segment — which accounts for 75% of production — is fully exposed to the global commodity price. The variety's reputation for high yields but inferior flavor means it competes directly with West African bulk cocoa on price.

Key Ecuadorian Cacao Entities

Entity	Role
ANECACAO	National cacao exporter association
AGROCALIDAD	Phytosanitary regulation and export certification
ProEcuador	Export promotion agency
Republica del Cacao	Premium Ecuadorian chocolate manufacturer
Pacari	Award-winning organic chocolate producer
Luker (Nestle)	Major cacao bean buyer/processor

Growing Regions

Province	Share of Production	Specialty
Los Rios	~30%	CCN-51, some Nacional
Guayas	~25%	CCN-51, bulk
Esmeraldas	~15%	Fine flavor Nacional
Manabi	~12%	Mixed varieties
Other	~18%	Various

What to Watch

Track ICCO quarterly production estimates — if the 287,000-tonne surplus materializes as projected, prices could test $2,500/MT, further compressing Ecuadorian revenue. Monitor CCN-51 vs. Nacional price spreads — widening premiums for fine flavor could incentivize producers to shift planting away from bulk varieties. Watch Ecuador's monthly export data — whether volume growth accelerates to offset price declines will determine the net revenue impact. Track Ghana's crop performance — Ghana's structural challenges (aging trees, swollen shoot virus, smuggling to Ivory Coast) are the primary catalyst for Ecuador's ascent to the No. 2 position, and any Ghanaian recovery would slow that trajectory.

Sources: Confectionery News, Reuters/Investing.com, Trading Economics