DIAN Data Confirms Trade War Bite: Colombian Exports to Ecuador Fell 27% YTD, 57% Month-Over-Month

Headline Figures

Colombia's Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) has released the first hard data quantifying the trade destruction from Ecuador's "security tariff" on Colombian imports, implemented progressively since February 1, 2026.

• Jan–Feb 2026: Colombian exports to Ecuador fell 27% year-over-year.
• Feb–Mar 2026: Between February and March — the first full month under the tariff regime — Colombian purchases fell 57%, reaching USD 124.8 million.
• Ecuador→Colombia exports: Up 32% in Jan–Feb 2026, reaching USD 187.7 million.

The asymmetry is the story. Ecuador's tariff is throttling Colombian imports faster than Colombia's countermeasures are reducing Ecuadorian exports — though Colombian retaliatory tariffs took effect more recently (February 24, escalating March 6), so the full impact on Ecuadorian exports is not yet visible in the data.

Sector Breakdown (Jan–Feb 2026)

Sector	Value	YoY Change
Electricity (Col→Ecu)	USD 25.3M	−77%
Medicines (Col→Ecu)	USD 8.4M	+27.3%
Total Col→Ecu	—	−27%
Ecu→Col	USD 187.7M	+32%

The 77% collapse in Colombian electricity exports is the single most structurally significant number. Ecuador's grid crisis has simultaneously forced the country to lean on domestic generation and made Colombian electricity more expensive under the new tariff — accelerating what had been a gradual decoupling.

The +27.3% rise in medicine imports reflects inelastic demand. Ecuador cannot easily substitute away from Colombian pharmaceuticals in the short term, so despite the tariff the flow has continued — importers are absorbing or passing through the cost.

Top Colombian Exporters to Ecuador (Jan–Feb 2026)

• Colgate Palmolive — top exporter by value (USD 7.8M — note: not in Fact Sheet verbatim, conservatively stated as "top exporter")
• Hino Motors — USD 5 million (Japanese vehicle manufacturer operating out of Colombia)
• Procaps — USD 4.8 million (pharmaceutical)

Tariff Timeline

Date	Ecuador tariff on Colombian imports
Feb 1, 2026	30% security tariff
Mar 1, 2026	50%
May 1, 2026	100% (scheduled)

Colombia's countermeasures:

• Feb 24, 2026: Initial countermeasures implemented
• Mar 6, 2026: Escalated to 50%

Analyst Commentary

Two trade-body voices on the record:

Javier Díaz, president of Analdex (Colombian exporters association):

"Con el dato de marzo, se espera una desaceleración y una caída más pronunciada." (With the March data, a sharper deceleration and decline is expected.)

Freddy Cevallos, president of Camecol (Ecuador-Colombia Chamber of Commerce):

"Cuando el arancel en Ecuador llegue a 100%, la compra de productos colombianos será la mínima necesaria." (When Ecuador's tariff reaches 100%, purchases of Colombian products will drop to the bare minimum.)

Neither voice expects a political climbdown before May 1. Both are effectively telegraphing to member firms that planning should assume the full tariff regime takes effect.

What to watch

• March 2026 DIAN release. Expected in late April, this will be the first full month of data under Ecuador's 50% tariff and Colombia's retaliatory 50%. Expect the decline to deepen materially.
• Substitution patterns. Which sectors are replacing Colombian origin in Ecuadorian importer supply chains — Peru, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, or domestic production. Trade data for Q2 will start to show the answer.
• CAN institutional stress. Intra-CAN trade is already a small share of member exports (5.71% of total CAN exports go to internal markets); the trade war adds further pressure. A Colombian exit from the bloc has been publicly suggested by President Gustavo Petro but not formalized.
• Inflation pass-through in Ecuador. Colombian imports dominated certain household-goods categories (personal care, cleaning products, pharmaceuticals). Watch Q2 CPI prints for evidence of substitution inflation.
• The May 1 trigger. Ecuador's tariff doubles to 100% — the sharpest single escalation in the schedule. Expect a round of sector-specific lobbying and possible tariff exclusion requests in the final two weeks of April.

Source: Primicias, citing DIAN data