Ecuador’s 2026 Growth Outlook Depends on Energy and Weather Risks
Forecasts are not the final result
El Comercio’s October 26 outlook puts Ecuador’s 2026 growth expectations in a narrow range: the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) projects 2.7%, while the World Bank estimate cited in the report is 2.8%. The president described growth as close to 3%. Those are separate estimates, not a final measurement of the full year.
Economist Fausto Ortiz offered a conditional scenario: if September growth reached 3.5%, matching August, and the October–December average were 1.5% amid El Niño and electricity constraints, annual growth would reach 2.7%. The article says third-quarter figures were not yet available. It cites BCE data showing growth of 2.1% in each of the first two quarters and describes a possible third-quarter increase as dependent on the September assumption and a comparison with lower oil output in July 2025.
The report identifies household consumption, exports and remittances as supports for activity. It cites August liquidity of $104.712 billion, up 9.1% year over year, and September electronic-invoice sales of $26.85 billion, up 15.9% from September 2025. These are different indicators; neither is itself a GDP growth rate.
What to watch
The main uncertainty is whether weather and electricity constraints materially slow activity in the last quarter. The report says shrimp and fishing businesses had already registered effects, while broader impacts could take longer to appear. It also reports a 51% increase in construction sales during the first 15 days of October, attributed to analyst Alberto Acosta-Burneo, as reported by economist Alberto Acosta-Burneo.
For business readers, the useful distinction is between observed early-year data, analysts’ scenarios and the eventual annual result. Watch for official third-quarter GDP data and subsequent reporting on power, weather and sector activity before treating any year-end projection as settled.
AI-generated illustration; not documentary imagery.
Source: El Comercio
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