China Projects Ecuador Trade Above USD 20B As Tariff Cuts Deepen
China expects Ecuador-China trade to keep scaling as tariff reductions deepen under the bilateral commercial agreement.
The agreement entered into force on May 1, 2024. Between May and December 2024, Ecuadorian exports to China totaled USD 5.780 billion, up 10.1% year over year.
Current Trajectory
In 2025, bilateral trade reached USD 17.330 billion, up 24%. Ecuadorian exports to China totaled USD 9.550 billion, up 19.3%, generating a USD 1.770 billion surplus for Ecuador.
In the first quarter of 2026, bilateral trade reached USD 4.756 billion, up 21.42% year over year. Ecuadorian exports to China reached USD 2.663 billion, up 13.8%.
Third-Year Effect
Chinese Consul General in Guayaquil Gao Zhenting said the remaining 30% of tariff lines will gradually reduce duties under the third-year tariff-reduction measures.
The projected result is that annual bilateral trade will exceed USD 20 billion, while maintaining double-digit growth.
For exporters, logistics firms, and investors, the signal is that China-facing trade flows remain one of Ecuador's clearest growth corridors.
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