El Nino Raises 2026 Operating Risk For Ecuador Cacao, Banana And Rice Producers

Ecuador's agricultural sector is entering a higher-risk weather cycle after NOAA's June 11, 2026 announcement on the development of El Nino, with cacao, rice and banana producers focused on rainfall, flooding, drainage and quality-control risks.

Sector Exposure

Primicias reported that the cacao sector represented USD 4.5 billion for Ecuador's economy in 2025 and supports 250,000 families across about 600,000 planted hectares. Ivan Ontaneda, president of Anecacao, warned that heavy rains can cause flower drop, disease and fungus, and lower grain quality.

The structural constraint is processing capacity. Ontaneda said Ecuador lacks enough infrastructure to dry cacao and process it mechanically, which matters when excess humidity affects export quality.

Rice has a separate flood-risk profile. Ecuador has around 320,000 hectares of rice, mostly in low-lying areas such as Salitre, Daule, Samborondon and Santa Lucia.

Banana exporters said they are maintaining drainage systems, canals and hydraulic infrastructure to reduce exposure.

Business Implication

The risk is not only production volume. For cacao, quality deterioration can affect export eligibility and pricing. For rice, flooding can impair planting and credit access. For bananas, drainage and logistics determine whether mitigation spending can protect harvest continuity.

What to watch

• Government coordination with producer groups and sectional governments.
• Localized flooding in Guayas basin rice zones.
• Cacao drying and quality indicators during high-humidity periods.
• Banana-sector drainage performance as rains intensify.

Source: Primicias