Energy Supply Brief: 270 MW Offline at Minas San Francisco, Karpowership Barge Renewal Stalled, New Minister's Corporate Ties Under Scrutiny

Three developments in Ecuador's energy sector this week compound the supply and governance pressures reported in our Celec Pascuales coverage on May 6.

Minas San Francisco: 270 MW Offline Through May 16

The Minas San Francisco hydroelectric plant — 270 MW installed capacity, located between Azuay and El Oro provinces — ceased operations on May 4 for mandatory reservoir sediment cleaning, with maintenance running through May 16, 2026.

The plant was contributing 245 MW until shutdown. The reservoir's limited sediment storage capacity requires annual cleaning: "the reservoir does not have enough capacity for sediment accumulation, so this reservoir-washing process requires the plant to exit operation."

Parameter	Detail
Installed capacity	270 MW
Output at shutdown	245 MW
Offline period	May 4–16, 2026
Reason	Annual reservoir sediment cleaning
Irrigation impact	Pasaje-Machala and Pasaje-Guabo-Barbones systems suspended

Mitigating factor: Hydroelectric sources provided 82% of national generation on May 5 — up from 65–75% in late March/early April. The Mazar reservoir (Paute Integral complex) recovered 10 meters during early May, reaching 2,142.8 meters above sea level — safely above the 2,115 m critical threshold. The Paute complex is expected to increase output to compensate.

Karpowership Emre Bey: 100 MW Barge Renewal Blocked

The Emre Bey — one of three Turkish Karpowership generation barges operating in Ecuador at 100 MW each — faces a contract renewal impasse.

Barge	Capacity	Contract Status
Emre Bey	100 MW	Original contract expired March 2026. Operating on residual Celec funds. Renewal suspended by Sercop.
Murat Bey	100 MW	Successfully renewed April 2026, two-year term under Elecaustro
Erin Sultan	100 MW	Contract extends through July 2026

The original Emre Bey contract was signed in August 2024 for $114 million over 18 months. Sercop (Ecuador's public procurement authority) sent three inquiries halting the renewal process, questioning:

1. Whether separate contracts for identical purposes constitute subdivision
2. Missing electronic signatures on market studies
3. Incomplete document uploads (attributed to file size limitations)

Elecaustro manager Marco Toledo says all issues have been resolved, but Sercop has not responded. The barge continues operating under Celec's residual budget — a temporary arrangement that cannot persist indefinitely.

This adds to the 70 MW already lost from the Pascuales (50 MW) and El Descanso III (20 MW) procurement failures. The separately contracted Progen and Austral thermal plants (241 MW combined) also remain non-operational.

New Minister's Corporate Ties

Juan Carlos Blum Baquero, appointed Minister of Environment and Energy via Decree 376 on May 7, held shareholdings in six companies across energy, agriculture, hospital services, and beverages as of the appointment date, per Superintendence of Companies records.

The most significant: Efficacitas, an environmental consulting firm operating for nearly three decades. Blum served as shareholder and general manager. The firm:

• Specializes in environmental impact assessments and audits
• Maintains active SERCOP registration as a state supplier
• Serves Petroecuador and CELEC — both entities now under Blum's ministerial oversight

Blum's successor as Efficacitas manager assumed the role on April 13, 2026 — two days before Blum's CNEL appointment on April 15. The equity stake appears to remain.

What to Watch

• Minas San Francisco return date. May 16 is the target — any extension reduces the hydro margin heading into lower-rainfall months
• Sercop response on Emre Bey. If the barge goes offline before renewal clears, Ecuador loses 100 MW of proven generation capacity during a supply deficit
• Erin Sultan renewal. July 2026 contract expiration is three months away — watch whether Sercop raises similar objections
• Blum's divestiture timeline. Whether the minister divests or recuses from decisions affecting Efficacitas clients (Petroecuador, CELEC) will signal governance posture
• Cumulative supply gap. Between Minas (245 MW offline), Emre Bey (100 MW at risk), Pascuales (50 MW lost), El Descanso III (20 MW lost), and Progen/Austral (241 MW non-operational) — Ecuador's supply cushion is eroding ahead of the October dry season

Sources: Primicias