Ecuador Fisheries Face El Niño Supply Pressure As Tuna Catches Fall More Than 13%

El Niño-linked warming is reducing fish availability for Ecuador’s fishing sector and creating knock-on exposure for aquaculture inputs.

Tuna, which represents 80% to 85% of Ecuador’s high-seas catch, is among the most affected species.

The species normally moves in a 24 to 26 degree temperature range. When waters become too cold or too warm, it migrates deeper or horizontally.

Catch And Depth Effects

Tuna catches have fallen more than 13% compared with 2025, based on Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission data cited by the sector.

The depth shift is also material. Tuna normally moves 30 to 35 meters down, but is currently moving as deep as 100 meters.

Smaller Species And Aquaculture Inputs

Smaller near-coast species, including pinchagua, macarela, hojita, pámpano, botella, and anchoveta, were described as largely unavailable.

A closure began on July 1 and runs through August 9.

The shortage affects fishmeal, an input used in shrimp feed. That links the pressure directly to two value chains: fishing and aquaculture.

What To Watch

The temperature-monitoring indicator is the anomaly range. Sector monitoring puts current anomalies around 1.2 degrees above normal, with a projection that could reach 1.6 degrees.

Business readers should watch tuna landing volumes, fishmeal availability, shrimp-feed cost pressure, and whether the current closure relieves pressure on smaller pelagic species before August.