Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit $7.5B in 2025; January 2026 Volumes Up 23% YoY

2025 Full-Year Performance

Ecuador's shrimp sector posted its strongest year on record:

Metric	2024	2025	Change
Export value	$6.06B	$7.47B	+23.2%
Export volume	~1.08M MT	~1.25M MT (est.)	+16%
Avg. price/kg	$5.61	$5.98	+6.6%

Shrimp has now surpassed petroleum as Ecuador's single largest export category — a structural shift in the country's export composition that has been building for a decade.

January 2026: Momentum Continues

January 2026 data shows the trend is accelerating:

• Volume: 125,200 tonnes (+23% YoY)
• Value: Not yet officially reported, but consistent with the 2025 price trajectory
• Top destinations: China (49.5%), Europe (~20%), United States (~12%)

Market Structure

China dominance: China absorbs nearly half of Ecuador's shrimp output. This concentration creates:

• Revenue stability — Chinese demand has been consistent
• Concentration risk — any Chinese import policy change would have outsized impact
• Pricing power — large Chinese importers can negotiate volume discounts

US market: The recently signed US-Ecuador ART did not explicitly address shrimp tariffs, leaving the US market's tariff treatment uncertain. Shrimp is Ecuador's second-largest export to the US after bananas.

EU market: Ecuador benefits from the EU Multi-Party Trade Agreement, which provides preferential access for aquaculture products.

Production Drivers

The sustained growth is driven by technification — the industry's shift from extensive to intensive and semi-intensive farming:

• Genetics: Improved broodstock with faster growth rates and disease resistance
• Feed efficiency: Better conversion ratios reducing cost per kilogram
• Biosecurity: Post-pandemic protocols reducing early mortality events
• Farm density: Higher stocking densities enabled by aeration and water quality management
• Processing capacity: Expanded value-added processing (cooked, peeled, breaded) improving margins

Industry association CNA (Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura) projects a potential 15% further increase in 2026 production.

Sector Risks

• Disease outbreak: White spot syndrome and early mortality syndrome remain latent threats
• China trade dependency: Any Chinese import restriction or tariff would immediately compress margins
• Environmental regulation: Growing pressure on mangrove restoration and effluent standards
• US tariff uncertainty: If shrimp is eventually subject to reciprocal tariffs, the US market ($900M+) would be significantly affected
• Ecuador-Colombia tariffs: Colombia's retaliatory 50% tariffs affect Ecuadorian canned seafood exports

What to Watch

• Q1 2026 export data (due April) — will confirm whether the January surge is sustained
• US-Ecuador ART implementation — specifically whether shrimp gains explicit tariff relief
• Chinese import volumes — any softening would be a leading indicator of sector stress
• CNA production estimates — the 15% growth target implies ~1.44M MT, which would set a new global record

Sources: Undercurrent News, SeafoodSource, WeAreAquaculture