Ecuador Power Bottleneck Extends To Transmission As 29 Priority Works Wait

Ecuador's power problem is no longer only about adding megawatts. The transmission system is becoming its own bottleneck.

The state-run transmission network needs 29 priority works to help guarantee supply reliability. These include new lines, substations, repowering of existing infrastructure, reactive compensation systems and reinforcements in energy corridors.

Capacity Pressure

Private companies in mining, cement, steel, hospitals, manufacturing and other sectors plan to add about 170 MW in the short term through self-generation or supply purchases.

The pressure is partly tied to Decreto Ejecutivo 32, issued in June 2025, which gave certain large users 18 months to secure their own generation, a deadline that points to December 2026.

Ecuador's current electricity deficit is estimated at about 1,300 MW. Private projects certified in August 2025 are expected to add 643 MW, including 464.6 MW from self-generation and 179.1 MW from distributed generation.

System Risk

CENACE warned in March 2026 that the system needs accelerated expansion to move energy safely to consumers. The concern is not abstract: the report identifies vulnerable CNEL areas in Guayaquil, Milagro, Guayas Los Rios, El Oro, Los Rios and Manabi.

Former electricity vice minister Gonzalo Uquillas pointed to the Molino substation in the Austro as infrastructure with more than 40 years of service life.

CENACE also said autotransformers at Manta, Quevedo, Chone and Posorja operate near 100% of nominal capacity in cited scenarios.

Business Readthrough

For energy users, the takeaway is that new generation does not automatically equal reliable delivery. Transmission delays can affect industrial planning, backup-power economics, project financing and the timing of self-generation investments.

Annual demand growth of about 300 MW means the transmission investment question is not optional. It is becoming a core reliability variable for investors and large power users.