El Niño Strengthens Off Ecuador, Impacting Fisheries and Coastal Weather Patterns
El Niño continues to strengthen in the equatorial Pacific, maintaining an active signal off Ecuador and Peru, according to recent reports from the National Committee for the Regional Study of El Niño Phenomenon (CN-Erfen). In recent weeks, sea surface temperature anomalies reached up to +2.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region (Central Pacific) and +4.5 °C in the Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific, off Ecuador and Peru). The oceanic heat content remains elevated, and sea levels show anomalies exceeding 30 centimeters in certain areas.
Ocean warming is now accompanied by atmospheric signals consistent with El Niño, including a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) near -18.7. During the first half of September, Ecuador's Litoral region experienced higher humidity and above-normal rainfall in its northern, central, and interior areas. This led to 37 rain-related events, primarily in Los Ríos, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, and Esmeraldas, affecting 1,316 people. Some rivers, such as the San Pablo in Palmar, notably exceeded historical maximum flow references between September 6 and 15.
The Public Institute for Aquaculture and Fisheries Research (Ipiap) forecasts that persistent conditions could lead to a decrease in catches of small pelagic fish, including mackerel, pinchagua, chuhueco, and sardines. Bigeye tuna availability may reduce by 30% to 50%, while yellowfin tuna could be found at greater depths. Conversely, marine shrimp and mahi-mahi resources may see increased availability.
What to watch
For the period between September 17 and October 2, Inamhi forecasts occasional rains on the Coast, with a tendency for greater intensities and frequency in Esmeraldas, Manabí, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Los Ríos, and northern Guayas. The NOAA estimates a probability greater than 90% that El Niño will reach a very strong intensity towards the end of 2026, primarily in the central equatorial Pacific. The CN-Erfen indicates that the final quarter of 2026 will be crucial in determining if the observed atmospheric response becomes more persistent. If the interaction between the warm ocean and atmosphere over Ecuador consolidates, the upcoming rainy season in the Coast and Galapagos could experience above-normal precipitation.
Sources: eluniverso.com; eluniverso.com; vistazo.com.
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