El Niño Poses Risk to 161,357 Hectares of Guayas Crops, Agricultural Insurance Uptake Remains Low

The El Niño phenomenon is currently impacting Ecuador's climate, placing 161,357 hectares of transient crops in Guayas province at risk. Of this total, 129,449 hectares are dedicated to rice cultivation. These figures are derived from the 2025 Agricultural Census, as presented by Carlos Cuesta, director of Risk Management and Citizen Security for the Guayas Prefecture.

Beyond rice, other crops identified as sensitive to El Niño include hard corn, choclo, cocoa, plantain, and banana. The potential impact on Guayas' productive sector was a central topic at an October 14 meeting involving representatives from various business associations, including the Ecuadorian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, the Ecuadorian-German Chamber of Industries and Commerce (AHK Ecuador), the Ecuadorian-British Chamber, and the Official Spanish Chamber of Commerce of Ecuador.

Regarding financial protection, the reinsurance market began adjusting its conditions in November 2025 in response to global climate alerts. However, data from the Superintendency of Companies, Securities, and Insurance indicates a decrease in agricultural insurance uptake. The premium issued for the agricultural sector totaled USD 1.4 million between January and September 2026, a notable reduction from the USD 3.5 million recorded in the same period of 2025. Patricio Rodríguez Villacreses, general manager of Giosegura Agencia Asesora Productora de Seguros S.A., estimated that less than 1% of Ecuadorian agricultural production is currently insured.

The Guayas Prefecture has outlined actions to mitigate risks, including subsidies for crop losses up to five hectares, provision of certified seeds for 38,356 rice farmers and 21,010 corn farmers, and agroecological inputs for 27,600 producers. The provincial plan also includes programs for livestock feeding and vitamin distribution, addressing potential impacts on animal husbandry.

Salitre, Daule, and Santa Lucía cantons account for 64% of the 161,357 hectares of crops exposed to potential flooding in Guayas. Samborondón and Colimes are also identified among the cantons with significant exposed agricultural areas. Javier Ronquillo, president of the National Corporation of Rice Producers Organizations (Corpnoarroz), highlighted the vulnerability of low-lying areas in Daule, Salitre, and Samborondón if frequent rains commence.

What to watch

Stakeholders should monitor the implementation and effectiveness of the Guayas Prefecture's mitigation programs, particularly the distribution of subsidies and certified seeds. The trend in agricultural insurance uptake will also be a key indicator of the sector's financial preparedness for climate events. The impact on specific cantons like Salitre, Daule, and Santa Lucía, which concentrate a majority of the at-risk crops, warrants close observation as El Niño conditions develop.

Sources: primicias.ec.