Global Cocoa Prices Crash 62% From 2025 Peak to $4,197/Ton — Ecuador's Rising Cacao Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as World's No. 4 Producer

Cocoa Market Collapse Hits Ecuador

Global cocoa futures have plunged approximately 62% over the past nine months, falling from highs above $11,000 per metric ton in mid-2025 to approximately $4,197/ton by mid-February 2026. The reversal ends a historic price surge driven by West African supply shortages and marks a return toward long-term trend levels — but with devastating implications for producers who invested at peak prices.

For Ecuador — the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer and the origin of approximately 60% of the world's fine-aroma cacao — the price crash creates a bifurcated impact depending on variety and market position.

Price trajectory

Period	ICE cocoa futures ($/ton)	Change
Jan 2024	~$4,200	Baseline
Apr 2024	~$9,500	+126%
Jul 2025	~$11,200	Peak
Oct 2025	~$8,100	-28% from peak
Jan 2026	~$5,400	-52% from peak
Feb 2026	~$4,197	-62% from peak

What caused the crash

Supply recovery in West Africa is the primary driver. Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana — which together produce approximately 60% of global cocoa — experienced severe crop failures in 2023-2024 due to drought, disease (swollen shoot virus), and aging tree stock. As replanting programs and improved weather conditions took effect in late 2025, production forecasts improved significantly:

Country	2024/25 production	2025/26 forecast	Change
Côte d'Ivoire	~1.7M tons	~2.1M tons	+24%
Ghana	~650K tons	~850K tons	+31%
Ecuador	~380K tons	~400K tons	+5%
Indonesia	~320K tons	~340K tons	+6%

Additional factors include:

• Speculative unwind — hedge funds that drove prices above $10,000 exited long positions aggressively
• Demand destruction — chocolate manufacturers reduced cocoa content and raised retail prices, suppressing consumption
• Dollar strength — the stronger US dollar reduces commodity prices denominated in dollars

Ecuador's cacao sector: two markets

Ecuador's cacao industry operates in two distinct market segments with very different exposure to the price crash:

Nacional (fine-aroma) cacao:

• Represents ~35-40% of Ecuador's production
• Commands a $300-800/ton premium over commodity cocoa
• Primary buyers: European and Japanese artisanal chocolate makers
• Current effective price: ~$4,800-5,000/ton
• Margin impact: Moderate — premium partially buffers the decline

CCN-51 (bulk/commodity) cacao:

• Represents ~60-65% of Ecuador's production
• Priced at or near the ICE benchmark
• Primary buyers: Industrial chocolate manufacturers
• Current effective price: ~$4,100-4,200/ton
• Margin impact: Severe — approaching break-even for many producers

Metric	Nacional	CCN-51
Production share	35-40%	60-65%
Current price	$4,800-5,000/ton	$4,100-4,200/ton
Estimated cost of production	$2,800-3,200/ton	$3,200-3,800/ton
Margin at current prices	$1,600-2,200/ton	$300-1,000/ton
Break-even risk	Low	Moderate to high

Export impact

Ecuador exported approximately $1.2 billion in cacao and cacao products in 2025, making it the country's fourth-largest non-oil export after shrimp, bananas, and flowers. ANECACAO data shows:

Metric	2024	2025	2026 (projected)
Export volume	~360,000 tons	~380,000 tons	~400,000 tons
Export value	~$1.5B	~$1.2B	~$900M-1.0B
Average price/ton	~$4,200	~$3,150	~$2,250-2,500

The volume increase is being more than offset by the price decline, potentially reducing export revenue by $200-300 million compared to 2025.

Investment implications

Ecuador had been investing heavily in cacao sector expansion, with government-backed programs through BanEcuador and CFN providing credit for farm renovation, high-yield plantings, and processing facilities. At current prices, some of these investments face extended payback periods:

• New CCN-51 plantations financed at $5,000+/hectare may not achieve break-even for 4-5 years
• Processing facilities (semi-finished cacao products) retain better margins due to value-add
• Fine-aroma certification programs become more valuable as the premium widens relative to bulk

What to watch

Monitor the ICCO quarterly production forecast for signs that West African supply recovery stalls — any setback (drought, disease) could reverse the price decline rapidly. Track ANECACAO monthly export data for volume trends that offset price weakness. Watch for government support measures — subsidized credit extensions, input cost subsidies, or minimum price programs for small producers. Compare Ecuador's fine-aroma premium trajectory against the benchmark — a widening premium indicates resilient demand for Ecuador's differentiated product.

Sources: Nairametrics, ICCO, ANECACAO, Bloomberg