Noboa Enters Second Term Under Pressure: 60% Disapproval, Referendum Defeat, and Record $230M Security Pledge

Noboa Enters Second Term Under Pressure: Strong Macro, Weak Mandate

President Daniel Noboa enters 2026 in the unusual position of presiding over Ecuador's strongest macroeconomic indicators in a decade while facing some of the weakest approval ratings of his presidency. The contradiction encapsulates a core challenge: financial markets have rewarded his orthodox economic policies, but voters -- battered by record violence and strained public services -- are withholding confidence.

The Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Especializados (CIESS) published polling data in late January showing 60% disapproval of the Noboa administration, with only 38% expressing approval. More strikingly, 72% of respondents said they see a "negative future" for the country.

The macro success story

Financial indicators tell a markedly different story:

Metric	Jan 2024	Jan 2026	Change
Country risk (EMBI)	2,016 bps	460 bps	-77%
International reserves	$4.8B	$9.975B	+108%
Inflation	3.4%	2.1%	-1.3 pp
Primary fiscal balance	-1.2% GDP	+1.1% GDP	+2.3 pp
Minimum wage	$460/month	$482/month	+4.8%
Sovereign credit	Caa3 (Moody's)	Caa1 (Moody's)	+2 notches

The country risk collapse from 2,016 to 460 basis points is among the most dramatic improvements in any emerging market sovereign over the past two years, directly enabling the record $4 billion bond issuance in January 2026. International reserves have more than doubled, providing a critical buffer for the dollarised economy.

The security crisis

The disconnect between financial markets and public sentiment is driven primarily by unprecedented violence. Ecuador recorded approximately 50 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025 -- the highest rate in the country's history and among the worst in Latin America, surpassing Colombia and approaching levels seen in El Salvador before its 2022 crackdown.

In response, Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in January 2026 and announced a record $230 million security investment package on national television, stating the effort requires "cooperation and political determination." The package includes:

• Military deployment: 15,000 additional troops to high-violence zones in Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, and Manabi
• Prison reform: $45 million for new maximum-security facilities and electronic monitoring systems
• Border security: $38 million for surveillance technology along the Colombian border
• Intelligence: $27 million for interagency intelligence fusion centres
• Equipment: $120 million for vehicles, communications, and protective equipment for police and military

Referendum defeat and political recalibration

Noboa's political authority was significantly weakened by the November 2025 popular consultation (referendum), in which a majority of voters rejected his proposed constitutional reforms. The defeat forced a Cabinet reshuffle and a strategic rethink that -- notably -- has not yet been publicly communicated.

The referendum's rejection is particularly significant because it denied Noboa expanded executive powers that he had sought to implement his security and economic agenda. Without those constitutional tools, the administration must work more closely with a fragmented National Assembly where his coalition holds a slim and unreliable majority.

Six-pillar economic strategy

Despite the political headwinds, the Noboa administration continues to pursue an economic strategy built on six pillars, as outlined by Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer:

1. Fiscal discipline -- Primary surplus maintenance under IMF Extended Fund Facility
2. IMF engagement -- Continued programme compliance and periodic reviews
3. Extractives promotion -- Mining reform (Decree 273) and oil sector investment ($42B projected from foreign companies over five years)
4. Electricity deregulation -- Private investment in generation to address the 2024 blackout legacy
5. Trade openness -- FTAs with Canada, China, UAE, and South Korea
6. US alignment -- Geopolitical positioning to secure trade and security cooperation

Analyst assessments

Americas Quarterly characterises 2026 as a "year of tensions" in which Noboa must simultaneously manage the security crisis, navigate the Colombia trade war, advance the mining investment agenda, and rebuild political capital after the referendum defeat.

Allianz Trade describes Ecuador's recovery as "moderate," projecting 2.1% GDP growth in 2026 -- below the IMF's more optimistic 3.2% forecast -- and warns that persistent violence and institutional weakness could deter the foreign direct investment that the economic strategy depends upon. FDI inflows fell to just $232 million in 2024, the lowest in 14 years.

What to watch

Critical near-term indicators include the mining reform bill vote (deadline February 27 under the urgent economic matter provision), the trajectory of monthly homicide statistics, and whether the Colombia trade war can be resolved before it inflicts lasting structural damage on bilateral commerce. The IMF's next Article IV review of Ecuador, expected in Q2 2026, will provide the most comprehensive external assessment of the government's economic programme. Monitor Noboa's approval ratings -- if they fall below 30%, the political constraints on reform implementation will tighten significantly.

Sources: Americas Quarterly, Latinoamerica21, Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, CIESS