US Tariff Cut on Indian Shrimp From 50% to 18% Threatens Ecuador's Hard-Won Market Dominance

US Tariff Cut on Indian Shrimp From 50% to 18% Threatens Ecuador's Hard-Won Market Dominance

Ecuador's shrimp industry -- the country's largest non-oil export sector -- faces a significant competitive challenge after the United States announced a reduction in tariffs on Indian shrimp imports from 50% to 18%, a move that dramatically narrows the cost advantage Ecuadorian producers have enjoyed in the world's most valuable shrimp market.

The tariff adjustment, effective immediately as part of Washington's broader bilateral trade recalibration with New Delhi, comes at a critical juncture for Ecuador's aquaculture sector, which posted total shrimp exports of $6.99 billion in 2024 and has been on a trajectory to approach $8 billion in the current year.

Ecuador's US market position

Ecuador recently overtook India as the top shrimp supplier to the United States, a milestone that reflected both Ecuador's production expansion and the punitive 50% tariff regime that had effectively priced Indian shrimp out of much of the US market. The tariff cut to 18% threatens to reverse that dynamic.

Metric	Ecuador	India
US market share (2025)	~34%	~22%
Average price (US import)	$5.85/kg	$4.20/kg (post-tariff)
Key advantage	Quality, traceability	Price, volume capacity
Production cost	~$3.10/kg	~$2.40/kg

The 32-percentage-point tariff reduction on Indian shrimp translates to an effective price advantage of approximately $0.95/kg at the US border, according to estimates by Rabobank's animal protein research team.

Industry response

Jose Antonio Camposano, president of the Camara Nacional de Acuacultura (CNA), described the tariff shift as "the most significant competitive threat we have faced in the US market in a decade" and said the federation has formally requested that the Ecuadorian government pursue preferential trade terms with Washington.

"We need the government to act with urgency," Camposano told Ecuador Brief. "Whether it is a bilateral shrimp protocol, an expanded GSP framework, or accelerated FTA discussions, we cannot afford to cede the ground we have gained."

The CNA has also called on the Asociacion Ecuatoriana de Acuicultores (AEADE) to coordinate a joint industry-government trade strategy.

Market dynamics as of February 6

European shrimp import prices remained stable on February 6, with Ecuadorian white shrimp (head-on, 40/50 count) trading at approximately EUR 5.20/kg CIF Rotterdam, unchanged week-on-week. European buyers are monitoring the US tariff shift but have not yet adjusted purchasing patterns, given that EU import duties on both Ecuadorian and Indian shrimp remain aligned under the GSP+ framework.

However, traders note a cautious tone in European forward contracting, with some buyers reportedly delaying Q2 commitments pending clarity on how the US tariff change will redirect global shrimp trade flows.

Strategic outlook

Analysts at Undercurrent News project that India could recapture 5-8 percentage points of US shrimp market share within 12-18 months if the tariff differential holds. Ecuador's defence strategy will likely hinge on emphasising quality differentiation -- particularly its antibiotic-free, pond-raised production model and full traceability systems -- over pure price competition.

The Ecuadorian shrimp sector employs approximately 250,000 workers directly and supports livelihoods for an estimated 500,000 people across the coastal provinces of Guayas, El Oro, and Manabi.