US Tariff Hike to 15% Costs Ecuador's Shrimp Industry an Estimated $20M Per Month as Total Burden Reaches 18.78%

US Tariff Hike to 15% Costs Ecuador's Shrimp Industry $20M Per Month

The United States implemented a 5-percentage-point tariff increase on Ecuadorian imports effective August 7, raising the baseline rate from 10% to 15%. Combined with pre-existing countervailing duties of 3.78%, Ecuador's shrimp sector -- which previously enjoyed duty-free access to the US market -- now faces a total import burden of 18.78% on shipments to its second-largest export destination.

The Camara Nacional de Acuacultura (CNA) estimates the incremental cost at approximately $20 million per month, projecting a cumulative impact of $170 million through the remainder of 2025. Ecuador exported approximately $7 billion in shrimp globally in 2024, with the United States accounting for roughly 28% of total shipments by value.

Tariff structure comparison

The US tariff regime has reshaped competitive dynamics across major shrimp-supplying nations:

Country	Pre-2025 Tariff	Current Tariff	Additional Duties	Total Burden
Ecuador	0% (GSP)	15%	3.78% CVD	18.78%
India	0% (GSP)	26%	4.36% AD/CVD	30.36%
Vietnam	0%	46%	25.76% AD	71.76%
Indonesia	0%	32%	--	32%
Thailand	0%	36%	--	36%

AD = antidumping duty; CVD = countervailing duty

The paradox: relative advantage amid absolute cost

While the 18.78% burden represents a significant new cost for Ecuadorian exporters, S&P Global Commodity Insights notes that the tariff reshuffling has inadvertently strengthened Ecuador's relative competitive position. India -- historically Ecuador's fiercest rival in the US market -- faces a combined burden of 30.36%, more than 11 percentage points higher than Ecuador.

"The tariff landscape has been completely redrawn," said Carlos Andres Vera, a seafood trade analyst at S&P Global. "Ecuador's absolute cost has increased, but its position relative to India, Vietnam, and Indonesia has actually improved. US buyers who previously split orders between Ecuador and India now have a strong price incentive to consolidate with Ecuadorian suppliers."

Preliminary US import data for August-September 2025 shows Ecuadorian shrimp volumes to the US up 8% year-over-year, even as overall US shrimp imports declined 12% across all origins -- suggesting that market share gains are partially offsetting the tariff cost.

Industry position

Jose Antonio Camposano, CNA president, acknowledged the relative advantage but cautioned against complacency. "We are competing with a handicap that did not exist a year ago," Camposano stated at a Guayaquil press conference. "The $170 million in additional costs will be absorbed by producers, processors, and exporters across the supply chain. We continue to urge the Ecuadorian government to pursue restoration of pre-tariff conditions through bilateral negotiation with Washington."

The CNA has formalised three demands to the government:

• Immediate: Reopen bilateral trade discussions with the US Trade Representative
• Medium term: Accelerate negotiations toward a comprehensive Ecuador-US free trade agreement
• Structural: Establish a shrimp-specific export promotion fund financed by redirected tariff revenue

Supply chain impact

The tariff increase is being absorbed unevenly across the value chain. Integrated producers with direct US buyer relationships report margin compression of 3-5 percentage points, while smaller independent farmers selling to intermediary packers face greater pressure as packers attempt to pass costs upstream.

The shrimp sector employs approximately 250,000 workers directly, concentrated in the coastal provinces of Guayas, El Oro, and Machala, and supports an estimated 500,000 additional livelihoods in adjacent service industries.

What to watch

Key indicators include monthly US import volume data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), any movement on Ecuador-US trade talks at the APEC summit in November, and whether India's higher tariff burden translates into sustained Ecuadorian market share gains through Q4 2025. The CNA's next quarterly export report, due in October, will provide the first comprehensive assessment of post-tariff trade flows.

Sources: SeafoodSource, S&P Global Commodity Insights, CNA