Coca Codo Erosion Risk Rises Ahead of June-July Amazon Rain Peak
Ecuador's largest hydropower plant is entering the highest-risk period for Coca River flows.
Primicias reports that June and July historically concentrate the Amazon's heaviest rains, increasing the Coca River's flow and the risk of new regressive-erosion advances near Coca Codo Sinclair.
The outlet says six regressive-erosion advances have been registered on the Coca River since 2020. Five occurred between June and July.
Infrastructure Exposure
| Item | Figure / Detail |
|---|---|
| Coca Codo role | About 25% of national electricity demand |
| Dike damage date | May 21, 2026 |
| Time from dike startup to damage | 38 days |
| May 21 river flow | About 2,800 m3/s |
| July 19, 2021 peak flow cited | 3,400 m3/s |
| June 21, 2024 peak flow cited | 3,354 m3/s |
| Erosion-front distance from intake, latest published report | 3.6 km |
| Time at that point | 290 days |
| Approximate advance since 2020 | More than 16 km |
Primicias reports that the latest published report from the Comision Ejecutora del Rio Coca, dated May 20, placed the erosion front 3.6 kilometers from the intake works.
The same report preceded the May 21 dike damage. Primicias says that as of the afternoon of May 28, 2026, it was unknown whether the May 21 flood reactivated erosion because the commission had not published updated reports.
Risk Signal
Carolina Bernal, a professor at the Escuela Politecnica Nacional, told Primicias that the most critical months for the Coca River begin in late May and that higher flows will complicate mitigation efforts.
Marco Acuna, executive president of the Camara de Electricidad de Energia Renovable, said regressive erosion remains one of the main threats to Coca Codo Sinclair.
Primicias reports that Celec said it was still evaluating damage to the permeable dike, which cost $19 million, and would comment the following week.
What To Watch
- Whether Celec resumes regular erosion-front reporting after the May 21 flood.
- Damage assessment for the $19 million permeable dike.
- Coca River flow levels through June and July.
- Any operational restrictions at Coca Codo Sinclair if sediment or erosion risk rises.
Source: Primicias
Source
Primicias — "Junio y julio, los meses mas lluviosos en la Amazonia, amenazan con acelerar la erosion regresiva en el rio Coca"
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