Ecuador Bolsters Thermoelectric Capacity Amid Dry Season and El Niño Concerns

Ecuador's electricity supply is adapting to the ongoing dry season and the anticipated El Niño phenomenon. Between September 1 and September 23, 2026, the country's average thermoelectric generation reached 875 megawatts (MW), according to the National Electricity Operator Cenace. This output represents approximately 19% of Ecuador's average electricity demand of 4,500 MW.

A significant portion of this thermoelectric generation, 587 MW (67%), was produced using fuel oil. Thermoelectric generation began to increase from September 7, 2026, notably from fuel oil turbine plants. This rise is partly attributed to the activation of two thermoelectric generation barges, which started contributing 200 MW to the national electrical system on September 21, 2026.

Despite these additions, the Esmeraldas I thermoelectric plant, with a capacity of 125 MW, remains out of operation until March or June 2027 following a fire in June 2026.

Hydroelectric generation between September 1 and September 13, 2026, was 3,577 MW, covering 79% of demand. However, the Mazar reservoir, crucial for the Paute Hydroelectric Complex, recorded an average flow rate of 54.5 cubic meters per second (m3/s) between September 1 and September 23, 2026, a decrease from 89.2 m3/s in September 2025. On September 24, 2026, the Mazar reservoir level was 2,136.15 meters above sea level, 16.85 meters below its maximum.

Cenace projects November 2026 to be the most intense month of this dry season, which coincides with the expected arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, threatening droughts in key hydroelectric areas like the Paute Integral complex.

On September 24, 2026, the Minister of Environment and Energy, Juan Carlos Blum, requested households to reduce and optimize electricity consumption, aiming for at least a 10% reduction in the residential sector. The Minister clarified that this strategy does not involve power cuts.

For high-consumption companies, an executive decree from June 2025 mandated 100% self-generation within 18 months. As of September 24, 2026, only 47 companies have achieved this, leaving 135 companies at risk of disconnection from December 15, 2026. These companies may utilize electricity from the new barges, with tariffs projected between USD 0.24 kWh and USD 0.44 kWh.

What to watch

Monitor the Mazar reservoir levels and overall hydroelectric output as the dry season progresses and El Niño impacts become clearer. Observe the adoption rate of self-generation among high-consumption companies and the utilization of electricity from the new barges. The effectiveness of the residential energy-saving campaign will also be a key indicator.

Sources: primicias.ec; primicias.ec; primicias.ec.