Cenace Flags Five Transmission Risks Before Ecuador’s 2026 Dry Season

Ecuador’s electricity risk profile is extending beyond generation capacity. The National Electricity Operator (Cenace) has identified five relevant operational risks in the National Interconnected System (SNI), with most associated with the transmission network.

The assessment matters for industrial users, commercial facilities, logistics operators, and investors because additional megawatts do not eliminate a bottleneck if the grid cannot move that power to the load center. Cenace’s June 2026 operating plan says the SNI is operating under degraded conditions in several points of the country.

The dry-season clock

The warnings arrive ahead of the 2026 dry season, expected from October 2026 through March 2027. Ecuador’s hydroelectric output typically becomes more exposed during that period, raising the value of thermal generation, local reserve, and transmission reliability.

Energy expert José Alvear Campodónico described the issue as a structural weakness in transmission. His point is operationally important: adding generation without expanding the infrastructure that transports it leaves the system exposed to the same constraint.

Five operating risks

The first risk concerns the 230-kV Santa Rosa–Alluriquín–Santo Domingo–Quevedo transmission line. The commercial operation of the Alluriquín plant in the Toachi Pilatón hydroelectric complex increased power transfers through that corridor, but Cenace says there are no expansion projects currently mitigating the overload.

The system is therefore relying on the Systemic Protection System, or SPS, for contingency mitigation. Cenace says using SPS as the principal mitigation tool is neither sustainable nor technically advisable. The system was designed as a last line of defense for severe events, not as a substitute for network expansion.

The second risk is the coincident exit of plants in the Esclusas–Trinitaria–Salitral area. Cenace cites the emergency outage of the 85-MW Trinitaria plant in March 2025, which coincided with maintenance at another Guayas facility. It also cites the emergency outage of Enrique García from October 4 to December 13, 2025, while Trinitaria maintenance was still under way.

The third risk concerns the Milagro–Minas San Francisco–Machala area, where coincident maintenance and unit unavailability have left El Oro vulnerable because of limited local generation and the low power factor of CNEL load.

The fourth involves the linked maintenance of Agoyán and San Francisco. Cenace says there may not be enough resources to guarantee continuity during a contingency in the country’s northeastern zone.

The fifth concerns the floating plants Emre Bey and Murat Bey near the high-demand Trinitaria–Pascuales–Salitral area close to Guayaquil. Murat Bey renewed its contract; Emre Bey was still not operating while its renewal was in process. Cenace warns that losing local reserve could force programmed or automatic load disconnections if another line, plant, or demand event fails at the same time.

What to watch

Track the status of transmission expansions, plant maintenance, Emre Bey’s renewal, local reserve around Guayaquil, and operating conditions as October approaches. The key distinction for business planning is between installed generation and deliverable, reliable power at the location where it is needed.

Source: Primicias