Fuel Bands Point to Another Ecuador Price Increase From June 12
Ecuador's fuel-price bands are pointing to another upward adjustment on June 12, 2026.
Primicias reports that the most likely scenario is a new increase for diesel, Extra gasoline and Ecopais gasoline, driven by higher oil and import costs.
Price Signals
| Indicator | Figure |
|---|---|
| Next monthly fuel-price change | June 12, 2026 |
| Monthly band cap for increases | 5% |
| Monthly band cap for decreases | 10% |
| Gasoline reference increase in May vs. April | $0.23/gal |
| Gasoline futures on May 31 | $3.15/gal |
| Gasoline cost after transport, margins and internal taxes | $4.47/gal |
| Current Ecuador gasoline price through June 11 | $3.16/gal |
| Projected gasoline price under band | about $3.31/gal |
| WTI on June 1 | $92.16/bbl |
| WTI move on June 1 | +5.49% |
Primicias reports that Iran suspended peace negotiations with the United States on June 1, 2026, adding pressure to crude and fuel prices. The outlet also notes that the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global crude consumption.
Diesel Exposure
| Diesel metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Terminal reference including freight | $3.81/gal |
| Import cost after margin and taxes | $4.51/gal |
| Current Ecuador sale price | $3.10/gal |
| Projected price under band | about $3.25/gal |
| International diesel May move vs. April | -$0.03/gal |
| Diesel subsidy, May 12-June 11 | $1.94/gal |
| Extra gasoline subsidy, May 12-June 11 | $0.59/gal |
| Ecopais subsidy, May 12-June 11 | $0.60/gal |
The report also links the pricing issue to the Esmeraldas Refinery fire on March 1, 2026, which has increased fuel-import dependence.
What To Watch
- Whether the government uses a decree to modify, defer or temporarily suspend the monthly adjustment.
- Import-cost data after the next fuel procurement window.
- Any change in Esmeraldas Refinery operations before the next pricing cycle.
- Consumer-price pass-through in transport, logistics and retail distribution.
Source: Primicias
Source
Primicias — "Escalada del precio del petróleo anticipa otra subida de las gasolinas y el diésel en Ecuador en junio de 2026"
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