Fuel Bands Point to Another Ecuador Price Increase From June 12

Ecuador's fuel-price bands are pointing to another upward adjustment on June 12, 2026.

Primicias reports that the most likely scenario is a new increase for diesel, Extra gasoline and Ecopais gasoline, driven by higher oil and import costs.

Price Signals

Indicator	Figure
Next monthly fuel-price change	June 12, 2026
Monthly band cap for increases	5%
Monthly band cap for decreases	10%
Gasoline reference increase in May vs. April	$0.23/gal
Gasoline futures on May 31	$3.15/gal
Gasoline cost after transport, margins and internal taxes	$4.47/gal
Current Ecuador gasoline price through June 11	$3.16/gal
Projected gasoline price under band	about $3.31/gal
WTI on June 1	$92.16/bbl
WTI move on June 1	+5.49%

Primicias reports that Iran suspended peace negotiations with the United States on June 1, 2026, adding pressure to crude and fuel prices. The outlet also notes that the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global crude consumption.

Diesel Exposure

Diesel metric	Figure
Terminal reference including freight	$3.81/gal
Import cost after margin and taxes	$4.51/gal
Current Ecuador sale price	$3.10/gal
Projected price under band	about $3.25/gal
International diesel May move vs. April	-$0.03/gal
Diesel subsidy, May 12-June 11	$1.94/gal
Extra gasoline subsidy, May 12-June 11	$0.59/gal
Ecopais subsidy, May 12-June 11	$0.60/gal

The report also links the pricing issue to the Esmeraldas Refinery fire on March 1, 2026, which has increased fuel-import dependence.

What To Watch

• Whether the government uses a decree to modify, defer or temporarily suspend the monthly adjustment.
• Import-cost data after the next fuel procurement window.
• Any change in Esmeraldas Refinery operations before the next pricing cycle.
• Consumer-price pass-through in transport, logistics and retail distribution.

Source: Primicias