Guayaquil Accelerates Flood Mitigation Plans Amid El Niño Forecasts, Faces Execution Challenges

The Municipality of Guayaquil is implementing two key initiatives, the Pre-Winter Plan and the Shock Plan, to address potential flooding risks associated with the anticipated El Niño phenomenon. Projections indicate that water accumulation levels could reach between 40 centimeters and 2.80 meters in the city's most vulnerable sectors. Historical flood fluctuation levels in areas of northwest Guayaquil are expected to worsen under extreme rainfall conditions.

Emapag, the Municipal Water and Sewerage Company of Guayaquil, presented progress on its Pre-Winter Plan on September 15, 2026. This plan allocates USD 2 million for the cleaning of 145 kilometers of canals, sumps, and tie rods. Concurrently, the Shock Plan has expanded its scope from an initial 19 works to 35, with its budget increasing from USD 4 million to USD 8.2 million to address infrastructure at highly vulnerable points.

Mitigation works, typically commencing between September and October, were advanced to August this year in response to El Niño forecasts. The municipal goal is to complete all projects between November and December, aligning with international forecasts for El Niño's expected climax. However, current execution percentages stand at approximately 5% for the Shock Plan and close to 10% for the Pre-Winter Plan, as detailed by Emapag's general manager.

Specific interventions include a nearly USD 1 million investment in a pumping station in Sauces 6, a northern sector prone to severe annual flooding due to its topography being 1.5 meters below the city's average level. This project aims to reduce flooding times to a maximum of 15 to 20 minutes. Community leaders in areas like Voluntad de Dios in Monte Sinaí have highlighted the increased risk of overflows due to a lack of storm drainage. Additionally, residents have requested urgent intervention on a retaining wall that showed leaks in the last rainy season, with Emapag authorities committing to an inspection and potential reinforcement if needed.

In preparation for potential displacements, the Municipality has the capacity to shelter up to 2,000 people across 29 temporary shelters located in its Municipal Integral Care Centers (CAMI).

What to watch

Monitor the execution rates of Emapag's Pre-Winter and Shock Plans against the November-December completion target. The effectiveness of these interventions, particularly the new pumping station in Sauces 6 and any reinforcement of critical infrastructure like retaining walls, will be key indicators of Guayaquil's preparedness for the peak El Niño period. The actual impact on water accumulation levels in vulnerable sectors, compared to the projected 40 cm to 2.80 m, will provide a measure of the plans' success.

Sources: primicias.ec.