Cacao Prices Collapse 59% From Peak — Farm-Gate at $180-$190/Quintal

Price Collapse

The international cacao market has undergone a severe correction, with benchmark prices falling approximately 59% from the ~$13,000/ton peak reached on ICE futures in late 2024 to approximately $3,336/ton as of early April 2026, according to Expreso and international commodity data.

Metric	Peak (Late 2024)	Current (April 2026)	Change
ICE NY Cacao ($/ton)	~$13,000	~$3,336	-74%
ICE London Cacao (£/ton)	~£10,200	~£2,700	-74%
Ecuador farm-gate Nacional ($/quintal)	$400+	$180-190	-53% to -55%
Ecuador farm-gate CCN-51 ($/quintal)	$350+	$150-170	-51% to -57%

The collapse has been driven by a convergence of factors: demand destruction in European confectionery markets, the unwind of speculative long positions that had amplified the 2024 rally, and improved crop forecasts from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana — the world's two largest producers.

Demand-Side Dynamics

The 2024 price spike triggered measurable demand destruction across key consuming markets:

• European confectionery — major processors (Barry Callebaut, Cargill, Olam) reduced cocoa content in formulations and raised finished-product prices, pushing consumers toward substitutes
• Shrinkflation — chocolate bar sizes reduced across European and North American markets, effectively cutting per-unit cocoa demand
• Inventory destocking — processors drew down strategic inventories accumulated during the supply scare rather than purchasing at elevated prices
• Asian demand moderation — growth in Chinese and Japanese chocolate consumption slowed as premium prices hit retail thresholds

Ecuador's Cacao Sector Position

Ecuador is the world's third-largest cacao exporter and the largest exporter of fine-aroma (Nacional) cacao. The price collapse hits the sector's revenue but volume dynamics are more nuanced:

Ecuador Cacao Metric	2024	2025	2026 (proj.)
Export volume (tonnes)	~420,000	~440,000	~460,000
Export revenue	$1.8B	$2.1B	$1.2-1.4B
Average export price ($/ton)	~$4,300	~$4,800	~$2,800
Planted area (hectares)	~620,000	~640,000	~650,000

Notably, Ecuador's export volumes have continued to grow even as prices collapsed — a function of multi-year productivity investments in CCN-51 high-yield clones, improved post-harvest processing, and expanded planted area in the coastal lowlands (Los Ríos, Guayas, Manabí, Esmeraldas).

Farm-Level Impact

At $180-$190/quintal, Ecuadorian cacao farmers face significant margin compression:

Cost Structure (per quintal)	Nacional	CCN-51
Production cost	$100-130	$80-100
Current farm-gate price	$180-190	$150-170
Margin	$50-90	$50-90
Peak margin (late 2024)	$270-300	$250-270

Margins remain positive but have compressed by 60-70% from peak levels. Small-scale farmers — who account for approximately 80% of Ecuador's cacao production on plots averaging 5-10 hectares — are most vulnerable, as they lack the scale to absorb price swings and often depend on intermediary buyers who extract additional margin.

What to Watch

• ANECACAO monthly export data — volume trends will indicate whether Ecuador's productivity gains cushion the revenue impact of lower prices
• West African mid-crop forecasts (April-September) — above-average production would keep downward pressure on global prices
• European grind data (quarterly) — the European Cocoa Association publishes grinding figures that indicate actual industrial demand; Q1 2026 data will show if demand destruction is stabilizing
• ICE speculative positioning — CFTC commitment-of-traders reports; net-long reduction has been a key driver of the selloff; stabilization would signal a potential floor
• Ecuadorian government response — any price support mechanisms, export credit facilities through CFN (Corporación Financiera Nacional), or emergency assistance programs for small farmers

Source: Expreso