Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador-Colombia Quito Summit Ends Without Agreement as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Remain; Colombia Files CAN Complaint
The high-level bilateral summit in Quito on February 6 ended without agreement to lift reciprocal 30% tariffs between Ecuador and Colombia. Colombia subsequently filed a formal complaint with the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and signalled plans to expand retaliatory measures. Both leaders face weak domestic approval as $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade hangs in the balance.
Ecuador Reopens Mining Concession Registry After Seven-Year Freeze, Targets $4B in Annual Mining Exports
Ecuador officially reopened its mining concession registry, frozen since January 2018, in a phased process that will culminate with full metallic concession availability by early 2026. Mining exports exceeded $3 billion last year and could reach $4 billion as six large and medium-scale projects -- including CMOC's Cangrejos and SolGold's Cascabel -- prepare to begin construction over the next four years.
US Tariff Hike to 15% Costs Ecuador's Shrimp Industry an Estimated $20M Per Month as Total Burden Reaches 18.78%
The United States raised tariffs on Ecuadorian imports from a 10% baseline to 15% effective August 7, adding to existing 3.78% countervailing duties for a combined burden of 18.78% on the world's largest shrimp exporter. CNA estimates the cost at $20 million per month, yet S&P Global notes Ecuador may paradoxically benefit as India faces even steeper US tariff walls.
Ecuador Unveils $2.43B Power Expansion Plan Targeting 1,471 MW of New Capacity Across 23 Projects With Nuclear Exploration
Ecuador's Ministry of Energy published its 2025-2030 electric power expansion plan, committing $2.43 billion across 23 generation projects totalling 1,471 MW of new capacity. Solar dominates with 963 MW, while the government disclosed plans to explore small modular nuclear reactors in the medium term -- a first for the country -- as it races to close a projected 76% demand growth gap by 2034.
Colombia Sends High-Level Delegation to Quito in Bid to De-Escalate Trade War as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Enter Second Week
Colombia dispatched a high-level delegation to Quito on February 6 for private bilateral talks aimed at resolving the escalating trade war between the two nations. The visit, authorised directly by President Petro, comes as reciprocal 30% tariffs, a 900% pipeline fee hike, and Colombia's suspension of electricity exports threaten over $3 billion in annual bilateral commerce.
Petroecuador Signs Energy Cooperation MoU With Abu Dhabi's ADNOC as Ecuador Courts Gulf Investment
Petroecuador formalised an energy cooperation framework with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) through a memorandum of understanding signed by UAE Minister Sultan Al Jaber and Ecuador's Minister Ines Manzano. While non-binding, the MoU establishes a channel for collaboration on crude purchases, technical best practices, and strategic cooperation as Petroecuador confronts declining output and an urgent need for operational modernisation.
PetroEcuador Production Falls 8.5% to 349,000 b/d as Labor Groups Warn of 'Silent Dismantling'
Ecuador's state oil company EP PetroEcuador averaged just 349,167 barrels per day in 2025, an 8.5% year-on-year decline, while public investment in the company fell 73% to $485.4 million. Labor groups have warned of a 'silent dismantling' as fuel imports reached 74.3 million barrels.
World Bank Forecasts Ecuador GDP Growth at 2% for 2026, Among Slowest in Latin America
The World Bank projects Ecuador's GDP will grow approximately 2% in 2026, broadly in line with forecasts from the IMF (2.0%), BCE (1.8%), and CEPAL (2.1%). The rate places Ecuador among the slower-growing economies in Latin America, with inflation expected at 2.8-3.2% and a projected trade surplus of $7.647 billion.
CAF and Ecuador Sign Technical Cooperation Agreement on Competitiveness at International Economic Forum
Ecuador and CAF signed a technical cooperation agreement on competitiveness policy at the II International Economic Forum in Panama City, where President Noboa outlined the country's economic stability and security strategy before 6,500 participants from 70 countries.
Ecuador Auto Sales Surge 37% in January to Best Start in Five Years as EV Share Hits 5.3%
Ecuador sold 11,342 new vehicles in January 2026, a 37% year-on-year increase and the strongest January performance in five years, according to AEADE data. Electric vehicles reached a 5.3% market share, with combined EV and hybrid sales accounting for 22.2% of the total.
Cacao Prices Retreat to $4,500/Ton but Ecuador Export Volumes Set to Surpass 600,000 Tons
Global cacao prices have fallen to approximately $4,500 per ton, down sharply from the December 2024 peak of $12,483. Despite the correction, Ecuador's export volumes are projected to exceed 600,000 tons in 2026, with the sector expected to generate over $1 billion in additional revenue.
Ecuador Returns to International Bond Markets With Record $4B Sale, Moody's Upgrades Two Notches
Ecuador sold $4 billion in new sovereign bonds on January 26 -- its first international issuance since 2019 -- drawing $18 billion in demand from over 340 investors. Moody's responded with a two-notch upgrade to Caa1, while a simultaneous $3 billion buyback will save $698 million in 2026 debt service.
