Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025, exporting $8.401 billion worth of product — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and surpassing crude oil as the country's top export for the first time. Total non-oil exports reached $29.402 billion (+18.3% YoY). U.S. countervailing duties on Indian shrimp have accelerated Ecuador's market share gains, and industry projections suggest volumes could exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2026.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit $7.5B in 2025; January 2026 Volumes Up 23% YoY
Ecuador's shrimp exports reached $7.47 billion in 2025, up 23.2% year-on-year. January 2026 volumes continued the trajectory at 125,200 tonnes (+23% YoY). China accounts for 49.5% of export volume. Shrimp has officially surpassed petroleum as Ecuador's top export category, with industry projections targeting a further 15% increase in 2026.
Ecuador Cocoa on Track to Overtake Ghana as World's #2 Producer in 2026
Ecuador is projected to export over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, according to Anecacao estimates, positioning the country to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest producer behind Côte d'Ivoire. Cocoa exports have already surpassed banana exports in value for the first time in six decades, reaching $3.6 billion in 2024.
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
Ecuador's National Cocoa Exporters Association (ANECACAO) projects cocoa exports will exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, a 11.3% increase from 2025's 560,000 MT. The volume surge positions Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season. However, the export growth coincides with international cocoa prices crashing below $3,100/MT — a 65% decline from the $9,000/MT peak in April 2025 — creating a volume-up, revenue-down dynamic that threatens farmer incomes.
Cocoa Prices Crash Below $3,100/Ton From Record Highs as 287,000-Tonne Global Surplus Emerges — Ecuador Positioned to Become World's No. 2 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed below $3,100 per metric ton, a dramatic reversal from the record highs of 2024-2025, driven by a projected 287,000-tonne global production surplus. Ecuador stands to benefit from the supply rebalancing: with yields of 800 kg/ha versus Ghana's 400 kg/ha and projected output exceeding 650,000 MT in 2026/27, the country is on track to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer — though lower prices per ton will partially offset the volume gains.
Ecuador's $1.2 Billion Tuna Export Sector Faces Price Pressure as Abundant Yellowfin Catches Collide With Global Skipjack Scarcity and Thai Reference Pricing
Ecuador's tuna industry, the world's largest exporter at 17% of global trade and $1.2 billion in annual revenue, faces downward pricing pressure despite abundant yellowfin catches in the Eastern Pacific. Persistent global skipjack scarcity continues to allow Thailand to set reference prices, creating a two-speed market that compresses margins for Ecuadorian processors and fleet operators.
Ecuador Valentine's Day Flower Exports Rise 3% to 39,000 Tons But Revenue Falls to $274 Million as Combined 21.8% US Tariff Erodes Margins
Ecuador shipped approximately 39,000 tons of flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 — a 3% increase over 2025's 37,000 tons — but revenue is projected to decline to $274-276 million from $282 million last year. The decline reflects a combined 21.8% US tariff (15% Trump administration surcharge plus 6.8% existing duty) that has compressed margins across the sector's 6,200 hectares of plantations employing 120,000 workers.
Ecuador Banana Exports Hit Record 378 Million Boxes in 2025, Up 3.9% Year-Over-Year as EU and Russia Absorb Over Half of Shipments
Ecuador exported a record 378.41 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase over 2024, consolidating its position as the world's largest banana exporter. The European Union (31%) and Russia (20%) remained the dominant markets, accounting for over half of all shipments. Emerging growth came from the United States (+14.5%), China (+17.9%), and South Korea (+39.1%), with the just-concluded US-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement poised to further diversify destination markets.
Global Cocoa Prices Crash 62% From 2025 Peak to $4,197/Ton — Ecuador's Rising Cacao Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as World's No. 4 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed approximately 62% from their mid-2025 peak above $11,000 per metric ton to approximately $4,197/ton by mid-February 2026. The collapse threatens Ecuador's ambitions to expand its position as the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, with the country's $1.2 billion annual cacao export sector facing compressed margins — particularly for bulk CCN-51 variety growers — even as fine-aroma Nacional cacao continues to command a premium.
Ecuador Ships 39,000 Tonnes of Flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 as US Tariff Hike Drives 6% Decline in American Orders
Ecuador's flower industry dispatched 39,000 metric tonnes of cut flowers during the 2026 Valentine's season (January 20 – February 11), up from 37,000 tonnes in 2025. However, the US tariff increase from 6.8% to 21.8% drove a 6% decline in US-bound shipments, costing the sector an estimated $6 million in lost revenue as Colombia's duty-free access captured displaced demand.
Shrimp Officially Overtakes Petroleum as Ecuador's #1 Export Product: $8.4 Billion vs $7.75 Billion in 2025
In a milestone that redefines Ecuador's economic identity, shrimp exports closed 2025 at $8.401 billion — officially surpassing petroleum at $7.750 billion to become the country's single largest export product for the first time in modern history. The crossover ends petroleum's five-decade dominance and confirms Ecuador's structural transformation toward an aquaculture-led export economy.
Banana Exports Hit 377 Million Boxes in 2025 With 3.9% Growth, But Fusarium TR4 Confirmation in December Clouds the 2026 Outlook
Ecuador exported over 377 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, driven by surging demand from China and Turkey. But the December 2025 confirmation of Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) on Ecuadorian soil -- the first detection in the country -- has triggered emergency phytosanitary measures and represents the most significant threat to the sector in decades. Containment efforts will determine whether Ecuador can sustain its dominance as the world's top banana exporter.
