Esmeraldas I 125 MW Thermal Plant to Remain Offline for 9-12 Months

Ecuador will lose 125 MW of thermal capacity through most or all of the next dry-season window after the Esmeraldas I thermal plant was taken offline by a fire.

Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum said the plant will remain out of operation for between nine months and one year. The outage follows a June 5, 2026 fire in the plant's cooling tower while maintenance work was underway.

Capacity Impact

Item	Figure
Plant	Esmeraldas I
Installed capacity	125 MW
Expected outage	9-12 months
Fire date	June 5, 2026
Normal dry-season window	October-March
Critical official deficit scenario	1,300 MW

CELEC said technicians from Termoesmeraldas and the insurer continue inspecting the facility to determine the scope of damage.

Consultant Gabriel Secaira also flagged asset-age risk, noting that the generator dates to 1980 and may be near the end of its useful life.

Why It Matters Before Estiaje

Thermal plants are system-critical in Ecuador because they can cover demand when hydroelectric output falls. That matters because the country is less than five months from the normal start of estiaje, when river flows decline and hydro generation falls.

Blum said that in a very critical dry-season scenario with lower hydro output, Ecuador's energy deficit would be around 1,300 MW for the 2026-2027 dry season.

Current conditions look stronger only because Ecuador is still in the rainy season. From June 1-10, 2026, hydroelectric plants supplied 87.1% of national electricity demand, averaging about 3,852 MW, while thermal plants supplied 531.5 MW, or 12%.

That contrasts with March 2026, when hydro plants covered between 73% and 76% of demand near the end of the prior dry season.

Stress Case

Secaira said hydro generation can fall to 2,000 MW during dry seasons. With Esmeraldas I offline, he estimated Ecuador would have around 760 MW of thermal capacity available, including the three leased barges contracted since 2024.

Under that scenario, the deficit could reach about 2,640 MW against peak demand that can reach 5,400 MW at certain hours.

Ecuador has about 30 thermal plants with installed capacity above 1,500 MW, but aging assets and unavailable units reduce effective contribution. The Energy Ministry said 342 MW of previously offline thermal capacity was recovered in 2025.

What to watch

• Whether CELEC's damage assessment shortens or confirms the 9-12 month outage window.
• Whether the government accelerates thermal-unit recovery at El Salitral, Gonzalo Cevallos and Anibal Santos.
• Whether 2026-2027 hydrology pushes the system closer to the official 1,300 MW deficit case or Secaira's higher-risk estimate.