Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
CAF Signs Technical Cooperation for Ecuador's National Competitiveness Policy
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) signed a non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador to develop a national competitiveness policy, announced during the II International Economic Forum and the Latin America & Caribbean 2026 Business Roundtable held in Quito. The agreement complements Ecuador's expanding trade architecture, which now includes the U.S. ART, UAE CEPA, and China FTA.
Curfew in Four Provinces Through March 31 — 75,000 Security Forces Deployed
Ecuador imposed a nightly curfew (11 PM to 5 AM) across four provinces — Guayas, Los Ríos, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, and El Oro — from March 15 through March 31, 2026, deploying 75,000 security forces with armored vehicles, motorcycles, and helicopters. The affected provinces include Ecuador's commercial capital Guayaquil and key banana and shrimp export zones, raising logistics and commercial disruption risks.
World Bank: Ecuador GDP Growth at 2.0% — Below Regional Average of 2.4%
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's GDP growth at 2.0% for 2026, below the South American average of 2.4% and well under Central America's 3.0%. The estimate converges with the IMF's 2.0% projection and CEPAL's 2.1%, while Ecuador's own Central Bank is more conservative at 1.8%. Despite record international reserves of $11.94 billion and an improving trade balance, structural constraints keep Ecuador among the region's underperformers.
Ecuador Continues Yasuní Oil Production Despite Court Order — HRW Report
A Human Rights Watch report published March 16, 2026 documents Ecuador's continued oil production in Yasuní National Park — one of the most biodiverse places on Earth — despite an August 2023 referendum in which voters chose to halt extraction, followed by a Constitutional Court order mandating implementation. The government's defiance of both the popular vote and judicial ruling raises ESG compliance questions and sets a legal precedent with implications for regulatory predictability.
NYT Investigation Challenges U.S.-Ecuador Joint Strike Claims — Dairy Farm Destroyed, Not Drug Camp
A New York Times investigation published March 24, 2026 found that a March 3 joint U.S.-Ecuador military operation in Sucumbíos province — promoted by SOUTHCOM and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the destruction of a narco-terrorist training camp — actually destroyed a 350-acre dairy farm. The farm owner provided property titles and pre-destruction photographs; workers reported soldiers arriving by helicopter, setting structures on fire, and beating workers.
Petroecuador Production Reaches 458,000 bpd; 2M Additional Export Barrels for March-April
Ecuador's national oil production reached 458,207 barrels per day as of March 2, 2026, with Petroecuador launching a 2026 drilling campaign targeting 380,000+ bpd from state-operated fields by May. The government announced 2 million additional export barrels for the March-April window, signaling a production recovery after 2025's 8.5% decline to an average of 349,167 bpd.
January 2026 Trade Balance: $630M Surplus; Non-Oil Exports Turn Structurally Positive
Ecuador posted a total trade surplus of $630.21 million in January 2026, with exports of $3,100.87 million against imports of $2,470.67 million. The non-oil trade balance reached +$403.57 million — a structural reversal from the -$400 million monthly deficits recorded as recently as 2021-2022, driven by shrimp, bananas, cacao, flowers, and tuna pushing the non-oil export basket above $3 billion per month.
International Reserves Reach $11.94B — Highest Level Since Dollarization
Ecuador's international reserves reached $11,940.11 million as of March 13, 2026 — the highest level since the country adopted the U.S. dollar in 2000. The figure represents a 42% year-over-year increase from December 2024's $9,795 million and a $7.4 billion surge in approximately 27 months from December 2023's $4,454 million, driven by fiscal discipline, export revenue growth, foreign investment inflows, and adherence to the IMF framework.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Signed — 53% of Non-Oil Exports Get Tariff Relief
The United States and Ecuador signed a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, 2026, eliminating surcharges on 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports — approximately $2.786 billion in annual trade. The agreement includes digital trade provisions barring discriminatory digital service taxes and opens access to EXIM Bank and DFC project financing.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA: $3B Investment Pipeline in Clean Energy, Mining, Tech
The United Arab Emirates and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in early March during the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi's visit to Quito, outlining a $3 billion strategic investment roadmap. The deal covers clean energy, mining, logistics, advanced technology, and agriculture — making Ecuador the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA with the UAE.
Mining Reform Law Takes Effect: New Environmental Framework, Military Zones
Ecuador's Mining Reform Law entered into force on March 2, 2026, replacing the traditional environmental license with a tiered 'environmental authorization' system. The law creates protected mining zones with military deployment authority, establishes a formalization path for artisanal miners, and supports a $14 billion project pipeline. Mining exports reached $3 billion in 2024, with the government targeting a doubling by 2027.
Ecuador's 2026 Budget: $46.3B in Spending, 13% YoY Increase
Ecuador's National Assembly approved the 2026 general state budget at $46.3 billion, a 13% increase over 2025 levels and equivalent to 33.27% of GDP. The budget assumes 1.8% real GDP growth, oil production of 165.5 million barrels at $53.50 per barrel, and allocates $2.2 billion in public investment across 388 projects.