Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Mazar Reservoir at 2,137 m.s.n.m. — 23-28 Meters Above 2024 Same-Period; Hydro Mix at 72.3% of Generation
Ecuador's Mazar reservoir — the strategic upstream storage for the Paute hydroelectric complex — sits at ~2,137 m.s.n.m. as of April 16, 2026, representing ~61% stored energy capacity and 23-28 meters above 2024 same-period levels. Energy Minister Inés Manzano: "tenemos agua." Hydro provided 72.3% of national output April 16; Coca Codo Sinclair 40% / Paute Molino 19%.
SRI Mandates Single-Step IVA Declaration + Payment Effective June 1, 2026
SRI announces VAT (IVA) declarations effective June 1, 2026 are valid only when filed simultaneously with full tax payment. Partial payment via credit notes invalidates the declaration. Exemptions limited to fiscal compensation system participants and qualifying direct exporters. Compliance and corporate treasury workflow change material for all RUC-registered taxpayers.
CENACE Formally Warns of High Blackout Risk — April 14 Demand Hits Historic 5,374 MW Record
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE formally warned of high probability of forced load-shedding across six CNEL distribution units covering roughly 1.9 million users. April 14 set a historic peak demand record of 5,374 MW. Mallorca feeder at Cataluña substation (Daule) identified as central failure point; some customers reporting 12-hour outages.
Judge Orders Preventive Detention for 15 in Six-Province Fuel Trafficking Network — 3 Active-Duty Military, 5 Police
An Ecuadorian judge ordered preventive detention for 15 of 16 people detained in a fuel trafficking network that operated across six provinces from October 2024 through April 2026. The ring included three active-duty military personnel and five police officers. Evidence came from 18 seized mobile devices showing systematic recruitment of police.
Banco Central Revises 2026 Growth Projection to 2.5% — Up 0.7 Points From September Forecast
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, a 0.7-point upward revision from its September 2025 estimate. The BCE expects 2.8% average growth through 2027-2029, 1.8% inflation, 10% private credit growth, and a $6.42B external surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% — implying material deceleration.
SRI Reports $267.2B in 2025 Sales (+9%), $21.5B in Tax Collection (+6.8%)
Ecuador's tax authority SRI reported 2025 economy-wide reported sales of $267.2 billion (+9% YoY) and tax collection of $21.5 billion (+6.8% YoY). Enforcement-generated revenue totaled $578.6 million, roughly 2.7% of collections. Digital channel usage hit 167 million portal visits and 3.5 million credentialed transactions.
CFN Disburses $243.5M in 2025, Posts $280.25M Profit — Delinquency Falls to 20.79%
Ecuador's development bank CFN reported $243.5 million in total 2025 disbursements — $159.83M in productive credit and $83.67M in partial guarantees — alongside $280.25M profit and $1.65B in equity. Delinquency fell from 22.55% to 20.79% year-over-year. Women-led projects received 58% of productive credit.
Ecuadorian Banana Exporters Target 25% South Korea Market Share by 2031 — AEBE Projects $100M Annual FX
Ecuador's banana export association AEBE projects that Ecuadorian bananas can capture 25% of the South Korean market — up from 11% / 3.57 million boxes in 2025 — once the 30% tariff phases out under the Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement. Full zero-tariff access is set for 2031. AEBE estimates $100 million in annual FX earnings at target.
Ambiensa Breaks Ground on La Estación 1 in Chongón — 4,500 m², 40+ Brands, December 2026 Opening
Ambiensa's subsidiary Corporación Guayaquil broke ground on La Estación 1, Chongón's first shopping center. The 4,500 m² development on 1.2 hectares has already reached 87% pre-leasing in three months, with 40+ brands committed. Opening is scheduled for December 2026. A second phase, La Estación 2, is already in planning.
Minutocorp Lists $4.5M Collective Investment Fund on BVG — Construye Patrimonio 01, Targeting 38% Three-Year Returns
Minutocorp launched its first $4.5 million collective investment fund, Construye Patrimonio 01, issued by associated entity Formaper S.A. The 10-year closed-end fund targets returns of up to 38% every three years and liquidates in 2036. The listing marked the Bolsa de Valores de Guayaquil's 107th bell ring.
Ecuador Finance Ministry Issues Directive for Debt Settlement Using Unproductive State Real Estate
Ecuador's Finance Ministry has published an operational directive allowing government debts to public and private creditors — including GADs and suppliers — to be settled using unproductive state real estate. The protocol requires signed dación de pago agreements, technical reports, and cadastral verification. Inmobiliar held 469 state properties as of December 2024.
DIAN Data Confirms Trade War Bite: Colombian Exports to Ecuador Fell 27% YTD, 57% Month-Over-Month
Colombia's DIAN reports Colombian exports to Ecuador fell 27% year-to-date through February and 57% between February and March as Ecuador's security tariff took effect. Electricity exports collapsed 77%. Ecuadorian exports to Colombia rose 32% to $187.7 million. The tariff escalates from 50% to 100% on May 1.