Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Oil Production Falls to 466K bpd — 13% Below Decade Ago
Ecuador's oil production has fallen to approximately 466,000 barrels per day (bpd), 13% below output levels from a decade ago and roughly 100,000 bpd below the fiscal budget target of 566,000 bpd. The decline reflects mature field depletion, chronic underinvestment in exploration, and infrastructure constraints in the Amazon basin.
$2.43B Renewable Energy Expansion Plan — 1,471 MW, Solar Dominates at 963 MW
Ecuador announced a $2.43 billion renewable energy expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new capacity, with solar photovoltaic projects accounting for 963 MW (65% of total). The plan directly addresses the hydroelectric vulnerability exposed by severe drought-driven blackouts in late 2024 and early 2025, diversifying Ecuador's power matrix away from its ~80% dependence on hydroelectric generation.
Shrimp Exports Surge 23% in January 2026 — Record Pace
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion in 2025 total exports. The industry projects an additional 15% growth in 2026, driven by expanding market share in China, the U.S.-Ecuador ART reducing tariff barriers, and continued global demand for farmed shrimp.
U.S. Countervailing Duty Review on Ecuadorian Shrimp — Preliminary Results March 10
The U.S. Department of Commerce published preliminary results on March 10 in its countervailing duty (CVD) review on warm-water shrimp imports from Ecuador. The review examines whether Ecuadorian government subsidies — including tax incentives, preferential financing, and infrastructure support — warrant offsetting duties on approximately $1.2 billion in annual shrimp exports to the U.S. market.
Ecuador Set to Become World's #2 Cocoa Producer — 623K+ MT Projected
Ecuador is projected to produce over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, positioning the country to become the world's second-largest producer behind only Ivory Coast. Cocoa exports surpassed bananas in value for the first time in 2025, driven by record global cocoa prices exceeding $8,000/MT and Ecuador's expanding cultivation area.
Withholding Tax Rates Updated March 1 — General Rate 2.75%
Ecuador's Internal Revenue Service (SRI) implemented updated income tax withholding rates effective March 1, 2026, with the general withholding rate increasing to 2.75%. The changes affect payments across professional services, commissions, insurance, and financial transactions, requiring businesses to update payroll and accounts payable systems to maintain compliance.
GDP Growth ~2%, Country Risk Drops to 460 — IMF Recovery "Faster Than Anticipated"
Ecuador's economy is recovering faster than anticipated according to the IMF's latest assessment, with GDP growth converging at approximately 2% for 2026 and country risk spreads narrowing to 460 basis points — down from approximately 2,000 bps in April 2025. The improvement reflects record international reserves, a stabilizing security situation, and expanding trade architecture.
FDI Reaches $4.2B; "Digital Ecuador" Allocates $200M
Ecuador's foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $4.2 billion, while the government allocated $200 million to the "Digital Ecuador" initiative targeting smart city infrastructure, digital government services, and technology-sector investment attraction. The programs signal a policy pivot toward positioning Ecuador as a regional technology hub alongside its traditional commodity export strengths.
INSELEC Debuts on BVQ with $5M Bond — 100% Placed
INSELEC, a 48-year-old electrical installations company, successfully debuted on the Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ) with a $5 million corporate bond that was 100% placed. The issuance signals growing capital markets access for mid-market industrial firms in Ecuador and follows the BVQ's record $18.2 billion in trading volume during 2025.
BVQ Records Historic $18.2B Trading Volume in 2025
The Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ) recorded a historic $18.2 billion in trading volume during 2025, reflecting growing investor confidence, declining country risk, and an expanding universe of corporate and sovereign issuers. The milestone marks Ecuador's capital markets as an increasingly relevant financing channel alongside traditional bank lending.
Infrastructure Starts 2026 on Pause — $407M Budget, Housing/Bridge Projects
Ecuador's infrastructure sector enters 2026 with a $407 million budget allocation, but major housing and bridge projects remain in planning rather than active construction. Security spending priorities and fiscal constraints under the IMF framework have delayed capital deployment, leaving the construction sector operating below capacity.
Export Sector Grows 11.6% — Germany +77% — European Market Diversification
Ecuador's export sector grew 11.6% year-over-year, with Germany emerging as the fastest-growing major destination market at +77%. The European diversification trend reflects the maturing EU-Ecuador Trade Agreement (operational since 2017) and growing demand for Ecuadorian shrimp, cocoa, and bananas in European markets.