Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador GDP Growth Forecast at 2% for 2026; Dollarization Keeps Inflation Below 3%
Ecuador's GDP is forecast to grow 2.0% in 2026 according to the IMF, recovering from a 2024 contraction driven by energy blackouts and low oil prices. FocusEconomics consensus is slightly above 2% through 2027. Dollarization continues to anchor inflation between 1.5% and 2.8%, giving Ecuador the lowest inflation in South America and a competitive advantage in attracting fixed-income foreign investment.
$2.43 Billion Electric Power Expansion Plan: 963 MW Solar, Hydro, and Wind Capacity Through 2030
Ecuador has outlined a $2.43 billion electric power expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new renewable generation capacity through 2030, with 963 MW from solar installations. The plan follows the 2024 energy crisis that produced months of rolling blackouts. The Ministry of Energy has allocated $407 million for 2026 energy projects, while the broader construction sector is forecast to grow 4.1% this year.
Ecuador Crude Output Falls 7% in 2025; Block 43 Production Continues Despite Court Order
Ecuador's crude oil production averaged 439,100 barrels per day in 2025, a 7% decline from 2024 levels. Block 43 in the Yasuni National Park continues producing approximately 44,000 bbl/day — 9.4% of national output — despite a 2023 popular referendum that mandated cessation of operations within one year. Human Rights Watch flagged Ecuador's noncompliance on March 16, as the government prepares a new southeast exploration round targeting 300,000 bbl/day.
Mining and Energy Reform Law Approved: Environmental Licensing Simplified, Galapagos Extraction Permitted
Ecuador's National Assembly approved the Mining and Energy Reform Law on February 26 with a 77-70 vote, replacing environmental impact licenses with simplified authorizations for mining and energy projects. The law also permits rock and aggregate extraction in Galapagos outside national park boundaries. The government targets $10-15 billion in mining investment by 2030, with Cascabel and Curipamba advancing to exploitation phase.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Mutual Tariffs; Border Tensions Rise
Ecuador escalated tariffs on Colombian imports to 50% on March 1, up from 30% imposed in January. Colombia retaliated with matching duties on approximately 300 Ecuadorian product categories. The bilateral trade corridor — worth $2.13 billion annually in Colombian exports to Ecuador — is now subject to the highest mutual tariff levels in decades, compounded by border tensions after President Petro's bombing accusations on March 17.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Finalized: Tariff Cuts on Key Export Sectors
The United States and Ecuador finalized a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, eliminating tariffs on bananas, cocoa, shrimp, flowers, and coffee — covering $2.786 billion in non-oil exports. In exchange, Ecuador will grant duty-free quotas on U.S. corn, sorghum, ethanol, poultry, pork, dairy, and soybean oil, and suspend its price band system for U.S. agricultural imports.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA Signed: $3 Billion Strategic Investment Roadmap Across Energy, Mining, and AI
The UAE and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) on March 2, eliminating customs duties on 96%+ of traded goods. A parallel $3 billion strategic investment roadmap covers renewable energy, digital infrastructure, mining, AI, and education — positioning Ecuador as the UAE's fourth CEPA partner in Latin America.
Los Lobos Leader Arrested in Mexico: Security Implications for Business Operations in Ecuador
Angel Esteban Aguilar, alias 'Lobo Menor,' leader of Los Lobos and primary suspect in the 2023 assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, was arrested at Mexico City airport on March 18. The trilateral Ecuador-Colombia-Mexico operation signals a new phase in international security cooperation with direct implications for Ecuador's business operating environment.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit $7.5B in 2025; January 2026 Volumes Up 23% YoY
Ecuador's shrimp exports reached $7.47 billion in 2025, up 23.2% year-on-year. January 2026 volumes continued the trajectory at 125,200 tonnes (+23% YoY). China accounts for 49.5% of export volume. Shrimp has officially surpassed petroleum as Ecuador's top export category, with industry projections targeting a further 15% increase in 2026.
Ecuador Cocoa on Track to Overtake Ghana as World's #2 Producer in 2026
Ecuador is projected to export over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, according to Anecacao estimates, positioning the country to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest producer behind Côte d'Ivoire. Cocoa exports have already surpassed banana exports in value for the first time in six decades, reaching $3.6 billion in 2024.
Claro Commits $600M to Ecuador Network Expansion and 5G Rollout Through 2038
Claro (América Móvil) will invest $600 million over three years in Ecuador for network modernization, coverage expansion, and 5G rollout. The commitment follows a spectrum license renewal through 2038 and a meeting between CEO Daniel Hajj and President Noboa. Claro is now the second carrier offering 5G in Ecuador after state-owned CNT.
Ecuador Returns to Bond Market with $4B Issuance — Largest in Country's History
Ecuador sold $4 billion in sovereign bonds in January 2026 — its largest-ever issuance and first since restructuring $17.4 billion in debt in 2020. The offering comprised $2.2 billion in 2034 notes (8.75%) and $1.8 billion in 2039 notes (9.25%). Country risk has collapsed from 2,016 points to 460, and international reserves reached $9.975 billion.