Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Bilateral Tariffs on ~$2.8B in Annual Trade
The Ecuador-Colombia trade dispute has escalated to 50% reciprocal tariffs affecting approximately $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade across ~300 goods categories. Colombia has suspended electricity exports as additional leverage. Credendo's analysis finds no immediate macroeconomic impact for either country but warns the dispute signals a 'new era' of Andean trade friction that could reshape regional supply chains.
Fuel Band Adjustment Projects ~5% Price Increase on April 12
Ecuador's fuel banding system is projected to deliver an approximately 5% price increase when the monthly adjustment takes effect on April 12, 2026. Extra and ecopaís gasoline currently stand at $2.89 per gallon, with diesel premium at $2.82 per gallon. WTI crude above $100 per barrel -- driven by the Iran war -- is the primary driver, pushing domestic fuel prices toward the second-highest level ever recorded under the banding mechanism.
US and Ecuador Sign Nuclear Energy Cooperation MOU, 300MW SMR Tender Planned
The United States and Ecuador signed a Memorandum of Understanding on strategic civil nuclear cooperation on April 1, 2026, with US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and Ecuador's Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld as signatories. Ecuador plans to issue a tender for a 300MW small modular reactor in 2026, which would make it the first South American country with a concrete SMR deployment timeline. The MOU follows IAEA technical cooperation and reflects Ecuador's post-blackout energy diversification strategy.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Eliminates Tariffs on $2.786B in Non-Oil Exports
The United States and Ecuador signed a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, 2026, eliminating tariffs on $2.786 billion in non-oil exports. The deal covers 53% of Ecuador's non-oil export lines to the U.S. market, phases U.S. beef tariffs to zero over three years, and largely eliminates Ecuador's 45% pork duties. Digital trade provisions establish the first bilateral e-commerce framework between the two countries.
Noboa Cuts VAT to 8% for Tourism Services via Decree 348
President Daniel Noboa signed Executive Decree 348 on March 31, 2026, temporarily reducing Ecuador's value-added tax (IVA) from 15% to 8% for tourism services during the April 3-5 Semana Santa holiday period. The measure covers accommodation, food and beverage, transport, travel agencies, and ecotourism operators. The SRI is implementing administrative guidelines for compliance.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Surge 23% YoY to 125,200 MT in January 2026
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year to 125,200 metric tonnes in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion performance in 2025. China's share of Ecuadorian shrimp imports declined to 49.5% from 54.2%, reflecting deliberate market diversification. The sector projects a 15% full-year volume increase driven by technification and genetic improvement programs.
ENAMI Prepares International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI is preparing an international tender for the Llurimagua copper project in Imbabura province, a $3 billion development with a 982 million-tonne resource capable of producing 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender follows the resolution of arbitration with Chile's Codelco, which was awarded $25.3 million of a $567 million claim.
Lundin Gold Targets 475,000-525,000 oz Production, Launches $85M Exploration Campaign
Lundin Gold released 2026 guidance targeting 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold production from its Fruta del Norte mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province, with throughput increasing to 5,500 tonnes per day. The company is investing $85 million in a 133,000-meter exploration drilling program and expects to make a development decision on the FdN South deposit in H1 2026.
Decree 273 Overhauls Mining Royalties with 3-8% Sliding Scale
Executive Decree 273 overhauls Ecuador's mining royalty framework, replacing the previous flat-rate system with a 3-8% sliding scale tied to LME three-year trailing averages. The decree mandates 100% self-power generation for mining operations, caps the total state take at 50%, and reopens the metallic mineral concession registry that has been frozen since January 2018.
Ecuador Banana Exports Rise 11.8% in Early 2026 Post-EU Tariff Elimination
Ecuador's banana exports rose 11.8% in the January-February 2026 period, reaching 71.49 million boxes as the elimination of the EU's 15% tariff in November 2025 boosted European demand. The EU absorbed 34.58% of exports, followed by Russia at 22.19% and the United States at 13.40%. Ecuador controls approximately 26-30% of global banana trade.
Oil Production Falls to 452,800 bpd; Fiscal Breakeven at 550,000 bpd
Ecuador's crude oil production fell to 452,817 barrels per day in February 2026, widening the gap to the estimated 550,000 bpd fiscal breakeven threshold. January averaged 466,400 bpd, a 1.8% year-over-year decline and 13% below the same month a decade ago. Pipeline theft, aging infrastructure, $3 billion in Chinese debt obligations, and declining proved reserves compound the structural challenge.
Cacao Exports Projected at 623,000+ MT; Ecuador to Surpass Ghana as World No. 2
Ecuador's cacao exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tonnes in 2026, according to Anecacao, positioning the country to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer. Production has surged from 375,720 MT in 2023, with the 2026/27 season potentially exceeding 650,000 MT. The industry targets 800,000 MT by decade's end.