Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Banco Central Revises 2026 Growth Projection to 2.5% — Up 0.7 Points From September Forecast
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, a 0.7-point upward revision from its September 2025 estimate. The BCE expects 2.8% average growth through 2027-2029, 1.8% inflation, 10% private credit growth, and a $6.42B external surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% — implying material deceleration.
SRI Reports $267.2B in 2025 Sales (+9%), $21.5B in Tax Collection (+6.8%)
Ecuador's tax authority SRI reported 2025 economy-wide reported sales of $267.2 billion (+9% YoY) and tax collection of $21.5 billion (+6.8% YoY). Enforcement-generated revenue totaled $578.6 million, roughly 2.7% of collections. Digital channel usage hit 167 million portal visits and 3.5 million credentialed transactions.
CFN Disburses $243.5M in 2025, Posts $280.25M Profit — Delinquency Falls to 20.79%
Ecuador's development bank CFN reported $243.5 million in total 2025 disbursements — $159.83M in productive credit and $83.67M in partial guarantees — alongside $280.25M profit and $1.65B in equity. Delinquency fell from 22.55% to 20.79% year-over-year. Women-led projects received 58% of productive credit.
Ecuadorian Banana Exporters Target 25% South Korea Market Share by 2031 — AEBE Projects $100M Annual FX
Ecuador's banana export association AEBE projects that Ecuadorian bananas can capture 25% of the South Korean market — up from 11% / 3.57 million boxes in 2025 — once the 30% tariff phases out under the Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement. Full zero-tariff access is set for 2031. AEBE estimates $100 million in annual FX earnings at target.
Ambiensa Breaks Ground on La Estación 1 in Chongón — 4,500 m², 40+ Brands, December 2026 Opening
Ambiensa's subsidiary Corporación Guayaquil broke ground on La Estación 1, Chongón's first shopping center. The 4,500 m² development on 1.2 hectares has already reached 87% pre-leasing in three months, with 40+ brands committed. Opening is scheduled for December 2026. A second phase, La Estación 2, is already in planning.
Minutocorp Lists $4.5M Collective Investment Fund on BVG — Construye Patrimonio 01, Targeting 38% Three-Year Returns
Minutocorp launched its first $4.5 million collective investment fund, Construye Patrimonio 01, issued by associated entity Formaper S.A. The 10-year closed-end fund targets returns of up to 38% every three years and liquidates in 2036. The listing marked the Bolsa de Valores de Guayaquil's 107th bell ring.
Ecuador Finance Ministry Issues Directive for Debt Settlement Using Unproductive State Real Estate
Ecuador's Finance Ministry has published an operational directive allowing government debts to public and private creditors — including GADs and suppliers — to be settled using unproductive state real estate. The protocol requires signed dación de pago agreements, technical reports, and cadastral verification. Inmobiliar held 469 state properties as of December 2024.
DIAN Data Confirms Trade War Bite: Colombian Exports to Ecuador Fell 27% YTD, 57% Month-Over-Month
Colombia's DIAN reports Colombian exports to Ecuador fell 27% year-to-date through February and 57% between February and March as Ecuador's security tariff took effect. Electricity exports collapsed 77%. Ecuadorian exports to Colombia rose 32% to $187.7 million. The tariff escalates from 50% to 100% on May 1.
Fedexpor Projects USD 367 Million Export Upside From Ecuador–South Korea Trade Agreement Over Five Years
With Ecuador's National Assembly having approved the SECA (Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement) with South Korea, Fedexpor is projecting a $367 million five-year upside in exports. 98.8% of Ecuador's exportable supply enters South Korea at zero tariff immediately upon ratification. Shrimp gets immediate access; bananas phase in; certain sensitive categories have up to 15-year adaptation windows. The deal now awaits presidential ratification.
Aerovía Suspends Operations as Guayaquil Power Outages Continue — Grid Strain Hits Concessioned Public Infrastructure
Guayaquil's Aerovía — the Guayaquil–Durán aerial tram operating as a public-private concession — suspended operations citing lack of electrical service as power outages persisted across multiple sectors of the city from the afternoon and night of April 14. Residents of Escobedo y Luque reported more than 15 hours without power. The government continues to describe the outages as scheduled maintenance or incidents, not a crisis.
SOTE Emergency Variant Reaches 70% Completion; OCP Pursues USD 135 Million Definitive Solution
Petroecuador's emergency variant on the Sistema de Oleoducto Transecuatoriano (SOTE), necessitated by aggressive erosion of the río Loco, has reached approximately 70% physical completion. The 1,983-meter emergency bypass is expected to enter operation in May. OCP is running procurement processes through Sercop for a definitive $135 million solution with a 47.8 km SOTE trace and 49.68 km for the parallel polyduct.
Ecuador Wins "Social Loan of the Year" at Environmental Finance Sustainable Debt Awards 2026 for $500M IDB Housing Loan
Environmental Finance awarded Ecuador the "Social Loan of the Year" prize at the Sustainable Debt Awards 2026 for a $500 million IDB-backed loan received in December 2025 to finance the state social housing program. The deal was structured with technical support from the Global Green Growth Institute, financed by Luxembourg. Minister Sariha Moya represents the recognition as a reputational win for Ecuador's sustainable-debt issuance pipeline.