Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador's Non-Petroleum Exports Hit All-Time Record $25.2 Billion in 2025, Up 16% as Shrimp, Cacao, and Bananas Drive Structural Diversification
Ecuador's non-petroleum, non-mining exports reached a record $25.202 billion in 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase representing $4.553 billion in additional export revenue. The performance generated a positive non-petroleum trade balance of $5.032 billion and confirmed a structural shift in the country's export profile, led by shrimp ($8.4B, +20%), cacao ($4.7B, +29%), and bananas ($4.3B, +11%).
Petroecuador Awards 14.4 Million-Barrel Crude Export Contract Worth ~$645 Million to Unipec, Shell, PetroChina, and ENAP
Petroecuador awarded export contracts for 14.4 million barrels of crude oil -- 9.36 million barrels of Oriente and 5.04 million barrels of Napo grade -- to four international firms in tenders held February 5, 2026. The contracts, worth an estimated $645 million in state revenue, went to Unipec America (Sinopec subsidiary), Shell Western Supply and Trading, PetroChina International, and Chile's ENAP, reflecting Ecuador's continued diversification of crude buyers beyond its traditional China-heavy offtake base.
Lundin Gold Commits $100 Million to 2026 Ecuador Exploration Campaign, Plans 133,000 Meters of Drilling at Fruta del Norte Complex
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration budget for 2026 -- the largest single-year exploration investment in Ecuador's mining sector -- with 133,000 meters of planned drilling across concessions in Zamora Chinchipe province. The company set full-year production guidance at 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,110-$1,170/oz, and expects to make development decisions on both the Fruta del Norte South deposit and a mill expansion beyond 5,500 tonnes per day by year-end.
World Bank Approves $900 Million Job Creation DPF and $200 Million Disaster Risk Facility, Reinforcing Ecuador's Fiscal Consolidation Path
The World Bank approved a $900 million Development Policy Financing operation for job creation and fiscal sustainability, alongside a $200 million disaster risk management facility, in November 2025. The combined $1.1 billion package supports Ecuador's fiscal consolidation -- with the deficit expected to narrow to just 0.7% of GDP in 2025 -- and positions the country to absorb climate and seismic shocks without derailing macro stability.
Banana Exports Hit 377 Million Boxes in 2025 With 3.9% Growth, But Fusarium TR4 Confirmation in December Clouds the 2026 Outlook
Ecuador exported over 377 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, driven by surging demand from China and Turkey. But the December 2025 confirmation of Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) on Ecuadorian soil -- the first detection in the country -- has triggered emergency phytosanitary measures and represents the most significant threat to the sector in decades. Containment efforts will determine whether Ecuador can sustain its dominance as the world's top banana exporter.
US and Ecuador Sign Reciprocal Trade Framework: Tariff Exemptions for Non-Competing Goods, Market Access for US Machinery and Digital Services
The United States and Ecuador signed a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade in November 2025, establishing mutual commitments on tariff relief, agricultural market access, and digital trade. Under the framework, Ecuadorian goods that 'cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States in sufficient quantities' -- likely including shrimp, cacao, and bananas -- will be exempt from the 15% reciprocal tariff. Ecuador committed to reducing duties on US machinery, chemicals, motor vehicles, and eliminating discriminatory digital services taxes.
Ecuador Cacao Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026, Positioning Country to Overtake Ghana as World's No. 2 Producer
The National Cocoa Exporters Association (Anecacao) projects Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons of cacao in 2026, a pace that would position Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer by the 2026/27 season. Ecuador's ascent is fuelled by rising planted area, improving yields from hybrid varieties, and sustained elevated global prices driven by supply shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to drought, disease, and ageing tree stock.
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3 Billion Llurimagua Copper-Molybdenum Project After Codelco Exit
State mining company ENAMI EP plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project, valued at $3 billion, after Chile's Codelco exited the 51/49 joint venture. The Imbabura province deposit holds a 982-million-tonne resource base with projected output of 210,000 tonnes of copper per annum over a 27-year mine life -- potentially one of Ecuador's largest-ever mining investments at a time of surging global demand for the electrification metal.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Smash Record at 1.39 Million Metric Tons in 2025, Industry Projects 15% Growth for 2026
Ecuador's shrimp sector delivered a record 1.39 million metric tons of exports in 2025, valued at approximately $7.5 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year increase after 2024's stagnation. China remained the dominant buyer at 48% of volume, followed by the US at 19% and Europe at 23%. Industry body CNA projects another 10-15% growth in 2026, driven by accelerating technification of farms and a favourable tariff position relative to India in the US market.
BIESS Cuts Credicasa Mortgage Rate to 2.99% and Expands Coverage to $71,500 as Social Security Bank Moves to Fill Housing Credit Gap
The Banco del Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social (BIESS) reduced its Credicasa mortgage interest rate to 2.99% -- the lowest in over a decade -- and expanded maximum eligible property values to $71,504, including single-bedroom units for the first time. The move positions BIESS as an alternative channel for homebuyers who cannot access the stalling Mi Casa Propia programme, and reflects the social security bank's strategy to increase mortgage disbursements amid Ecuador's 1.8-2.2 million unit housing deficit.
Mi Casa Propia Stalls: Over 60% of Loan Applications Fail to Qualify Despite $100 Million Government Allocation
More than 60% of applications submitted to Ecuador's Mi Casa Propia subsidised housing programme have failed to meet qualification requirements, despite a $100 million government allocation designed to expand homeownership among lower-income households. The high rejection rate exposes structural barriers in Ecuador's mortgage market -- including widespread informal employment, land title irregularities, and income documentation gaps -- that government subsidies alone cannot resolve.
Elecaustro Launches Bid for 100MW Replacement Barge as Karpowership Contract Expires, Exposing Grid's Continued Rental Dependence
Elecaustro issued a competitive bid to lease a power generation barge of up to 100 megawatts to replace capacity lost when its Karpowership contract expired on January 7 after a 110-day term. The procurement underscores Ecuador's continued dependence on rented emergency generation -- 334MW across three barges and two thermal plants -- even as the government advances a $2.43 billion long-term power expansion plan targeting 1,471MW of new capacity.
