Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador-Colombia Tariff War at 50% — Lima Talks March 26-27
Ecuador and Colombia have imposed reciprocal tariffs of 50% in an escalating trade dispute that threatens $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade. Mediation talks are scheduled for March 26-27 in Lima, with both countries' agricultural, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors facing significant disruption. The dispute marks the most serious commercial confrontation between the two Andean neighbors in over a decade.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA: $3B Investment Pipeline — 96%+ Tariff Elimination
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that eliminates tariffs on over 96% of product lines and opens a $3 billion investment pipeline targeting energy, logistics, infrastructure, and agriculture. The agreement positions Ecuador as one of the first Latin American countries with preferential access to the Gulf market and Gulf sovereign wealth capital.
U.S.-Ecuador Trade Deal Labor Provisions — Bar Weakening Worker Protections
The U.S.-Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) includes labor provisions that bar either party from weakening worker protections to gain a trade advantage. The provisions require Ecuador to maintain compliance with ILO core labor standards, including freedom of association and elimination of forced labor, with non-compliance potentially triggering dispute resolution and suspension of tariff preferences.
National Assembly Passes Mining Reform Law — 77-70 Vote
Ecuador's National Assembly passed the Mining Reform Law in a 77-70 vote, establishing a new environmental compliance system, restructured community consultation framework, and streamlined permitting processes. The reform is projected to unlock $10-15 billion in mining investment by 2030, driven primarily by gold and copper projects in the southern highlands and coastal cordillera.
Lundin Gold Invests $100M in 2026 Exploration — 133K Meters Drilling
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration investment for 2026, including 133,000 meters of drilling at and around the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province. The program targets mine life extension, resource expansion, and near-mine discoveries at Ecuador's flagship producing gold operation.
Oil Production Falls to 466K bpd — 13% Below Decade Ago
Ecuador's oil production has fallen to approximately 466,000 barrels per day (bpd), 13% below output levels from a decade ago and roughly 100,000 bpd below the fiscal budget target of 566,000 bpd. The decline reflects mature field depletion, chronic underinvestment in exploration, and infrastructure constraints in the Amazon basin.
$2.43B Renewable Energy Expansion Plan — 1,471 MW, Solar Dominates at 963 MW
Ecuador announced a $2.43 billion renewable energy expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new capacity, with solar photovoltaic projects accounting for 963 MW (65% of total). The plan directly addresses the hydroelectric vulnerability exposed by severe drought-driven blackouts in late 2024 and early 2025, diversifying Ecuador's power matrix away from its ~80% dependence on hydroelectric generation.
Shrimp Exports Surge 23% in January 2026 — Record Pace
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion in 2025 total exports. The industry projects an additional 15% growth in 2026, driven by expanding market share in China, the U.S.-Ecuador ART reducing tariff barriers, and continued global demand for farmed shrimp.
U.S. Countervailing Duty Review on Ecuadorian Shrimp — Preliminary Results March 10
The U.S. Department of Commerce published preliminary results on March 10 in its countervailing duty (CVD) review on warm-water shrimp imports from Ecuador. The review examines whether Ecuadorian government subsidies — including tax incentives, preferential financing, and infrastructure support — warrant offsetting duties on approximately $1.2 billion in annual shrimp exports to the U.S. market.
Ecuador Set to Become World's #2 Cocoa Producer — 623K+ MT Projected
Ecuador is projected to produce over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, positioning the country to become the world's second-largest producer behind only Ivory Coast. Cocoa exports surpassed bananas in value for the first time in 2025, driven by record global cocoa prices exceeding $8,000/MT and Ecuador's expanding cultivation area.
Withholding Tax Rates Updated March 1 — General Rate 2.75%
Ecuador's Internal Revenue Service (SRI) implemented updated income tax withholding rates effective March 1, 2026, with the general withholding rate increasing to 2.75%. The changes affect payments across professional services, commissions, insurance, and financial transactions, requiring businesses to update payroll and accounts payable systems to maintain compliance.
GDP Growth ~2%, Country Risk Drops to 460 — IMF Recovery "Faster Than Anticipated"
Ecuador's economy is recovering faster than anticipated according to the IMF's latest assessment, with GDP growth converging at approximately 2% for 2026 and country risk spreads narrowing to 460 basis points — down from approximately 2,000 bps in April 2025. The improvement reflects record international reserves, a stabilizing security situation, and expanding trade architecture.