Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador's Rice Sector in Crisis: Colombia Ban Creates 80,000-Ton Surplus as Farm-Gate Prices Collapse 38%
Colombia's rice import ban on February 24, 2026 eliminated Ecuador's dominant export destination — 90% of the exportable surplus — creating an estimated 80,000-metric-ton domestic glut. Farm-gate prices collapsed 38% as piladoras slashed purchasing rates. The government's $8 million emergency purchase covers only a quarter of the surplus.
Second Thermal Procurement Failure in Two Weeks: Celec Pascuales 50 MW Contract Declared Desert
Celec declared the 50 MW Pascuales thermal generation rental process desert on May 4, with all four bidders disqualified. Combined with the El Descanso III failure on April 27, Ecuador has lost 70 MW of planned emergency generation capacity ahead of the October dry season.
ASOTEP Assessment: Peru's Chancay Megaport Impact on Ecuador 'Indirect and Non-Substitutive'
Ecuador's Port Terminals Association (ASOTEP) assesses that Peru's Chancay megaport has created an 'indirect and non-substitutive' impact on Ecuadorian port operations, reconfiguring regional transshipment routes toward Asia rather than displacing Ecuadorian cargo directly.
Cenace Projects 18% Blackout Probability for October-March Dry Season
Ecuador's national grid operator Cenace has modeled an 18% probability of rolling blackouts during the October 2026-March 2027 dry season, driven by the loss of Colombian energy imports and recurring shutdowns at the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant.
Ecuador Reduces Colombia Security Tariff From 100% to 75%, Effective June 1
Ecuador will lower its security tariff on Colombian imports from 100% to 75% starting June 1, 2026 — the first reduction since President Noboa initiated trade restrictions in February. Colombia's retaliatory tariffs on 191 Ecuadorian products remain in place.
Ecuador Purchases $8M in Domestic Rice as Colombia Export Channel Closes
The Ecuadorian government is purchasing 20,000 metric tons of domestic rice for $8 million under Executive Decree 307, after Colombia's February import ban eliminated the destination for 90% of Ecuador's rice exports and created a 190,000-ton surplus.
Petroecuador Deploys Hydraulic Fracturing in Block 57 as Production Slides to 2026 Low
Petroecuador has begun hydraulic fracturing operations in the Shushufindi Libertador field (Block 57, Sucumbíos) in partnership with Chinese service provider CCDC, targeting compact limestone formations for the first time. The move comes as the state operator's output fell to 364,876 barrels per day in March 2026 — its lowest level this year.
Agriculture Ministry Activates M Rice Purchase Program Across 4 Collection Centers
The Ministry of Agriculture (MAGP) opened four rice collection centers on May 4 in Guayas and Los Ríos, backed by million in BanEcuador financing. The program purchases paddy rice directly from 7,000 registered producers at (short-grain) to (long-grain) per 205-pound sack.
SENAE Cuts Duty-Free Liquor Allowance to 3 Liters, Citing 694,000-Liter Informal Trade Leak
Ecuador's National Customs Service (SENAE) reduced the per-traveler duty-free alcohol limit from 5 liters to 3 liters effective May 4, 2026. The agency estimates 694,000 liters entered duty-free in 2024 alone, with the majority diverted to informal commercial channels rather than personal consumption.
China-Ecuador FTA at Two Years: Non-Petroleum Trade Deficit Widens 467% as Chinese Imports Surge 30%
Two years after entering force, the China-Ecuador Free Trade Agreement has produced a dramatically lopsided result. Ecuador's non-petroleum trade deficit with China widened from $335 million in 2023 to $1.9 billion in 2025 — a 467% deterioration driven by a 30% surge in Chinese imports while export growth stalled at 4.4%.
Colombia Signs Decree 0455: Retaliatory Tariffs of 35–75% on Ecuadorian Products — Bilateral Trade Projected to Collapse
Colombia has signed Decree 0455 establishing retaliatory tariffs of 35%, 50%, and 75% on Ecuadorian imports, invoking national security provisions under the Cartagena Agreement and GATT Article XXI. Trade projections indicate a 75% decline in Colombian imports from Ecuador ($640M reduction) and a 79% decline in Colombian exports to Ecuador ($1.452B reduction).
SRI Limits Credit Note Use to 60% of Tax Obligations — 40% Cash Requirement Takes Effect May 1
Ecuador's tax authority has imposed a 60% cap on the use of credit notes to satisfy tax obligations, effective May 1. The remaining 40% — including any fines and interest — must be paid in cash through approved channels. Tax specialists argue the restriction exceeds the SRI's administrative authority and conflicts with the Tax Code.
