Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Noboa Cuts VAT to 8% for Tourism Services via Decree 348
President Daniel Noboa signed Executive Decree 348 on March 31, 2026, temporarily reducing Ecuador's value-added tax (IVA) from 15% to 8% for tourism services during the April 3-5 Semana Santa holiday period. The measure covers accommodation, food and beverage, transport, travel agencies, and ecotourism operators. The SRI is implementing administrative guidelines for compliance.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Surge 23% YoY to 125,200 MT in January 2026
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year to 125,200 metric tonnes in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion performance in 2025. China's share of Ecuadorian shrimp imports declined to 49.5% from 54.2%, reflecting deliberate market diversification. The sector projects a 15% full-year volume increase driven by technification and genetic improvement programs.
ENAMI Prepares International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI is preparing an international tender for the Llurimagua copper project in Imbabura province, a $3 billion development with a 982 million-tonne resource capable of producing 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender follows the resolution of arbitration with Chile's Codelco, which was awarded $25.3 million of a $567 million claim.
Lundin Gold Targets 475,000-525,000 oz Production, Launches $85M Exploration Campaign
Lundin Gold released 2026 guidance targeting 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold production from its Fruta del Norte mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province, with throughput increasing to 5,500 tonnes per day. The company is investing $85 million in a 133,000-meter exploration drilling program and expects to make a development decision on the FdN South deposit in H1 2026.
Decree 273 Overhauls Mining Royalties with 3-8% Sliding Scale
Executive Decree 273 overhauls Ecuador's mining royalty framework, replacing the previous flat-rate system with a 3-8% sliding scale tied to LME three-year trailing averages. The decree mandates 100% self-power generation for mining operations, caps the total state take at 50%, and reopens the metallic mineral concession registry that has been frozen since January 2018.
Ecuador Banana Exports Rise 11.8% in Early 2026 Post-EU Tariff Elimination
Ecuador's banana exports rose 11.8% in the January-February 2026 period, reaching 71.49 million boxes as the elimination of the EU's 15% tariff in November 2025 boosted European demand. The EU absorbed 34.58% of exports, followed by Russia at 22.19% and the United States at 13.40%. Ecuador controls approximately 26-30% of global banana trade.
Oil Production Falls to 452,800 bpd; Fiscal Breakeven at 550,000 bpd
Ecuador's crude oil production fell to 452,817 barrels per day in February 2026, widening the gap to the estimated 550,000 bpd fiscal breakeven threshold. January averaged 466,400 bpd, a 1.8% year-over-year decline and 13% below the same month a decade ago. Pipeline theft, aging infrastructure, $3 billion in Chinese debt obligations, and declining proved reserves compound the structural challenge.
Cacao Exports Projected at 623,000+ MT; Ecuador to Surpass Ghana as World No. 2
Ecuador's cacao exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tonnes in 2026, according to Anecacao, positioning the country to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer. Production has surged from 375,720 MT in 2023, with the 2026/27 season potentially exceeding 650,000 MT. The industry targets 800,000 MT by decade's end.
Coca Codo Sinclair Erosion: Army Corps Warns Damage Could Reach Intake by 2026
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has warned that erosion along the Coca River could reach the intake structure of Ecuador's 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant by 2026. The plant generates approximately one-third of Ecuador's electricity. While recent rains have improved reservoir levels and a new 200 MW plant has come online, peak demand of approximately 4,500 MW continues to strain the system.
World Bank Projects 2% GDP Growth for Ecuador in 2026; Tax Reform Likely
The World Bank projects Ecuador's GDP will grow 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. With a fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, the expiration of the security contribution ($330 million), and weakening oil receipts, multilateral institutions consider tax reform increasingly likely. The government faces a structural revenue gap that existing measures cannot close.
Ecuador's Oil Output Drops to 466,400 bbl/d in January -- 13% Below Decade Average; Pipeline Theft Epidemic Costs $100M/Year
Ecuador's crude oil production averaged 466,400 barrels per day in January 2026, a 1.8% year-over-year decline and 13% below the same month a decade ago. The 84,000 bbl/d gap to fiscal break-even translates to an estimated $800 million annual revenue shortfall. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing approximately $100 million per year as narcotrafficking organizations exploit petroleum infrastructure.
Europol-Ecuador Operation Dismantles Los Lobos Trafficking Network -- 7+ Tonnes Seized, High-Value Target Captured
A joint Europol-Ecuadorian police operation dismantled a drug trafficking network linked to the Los Lobos criminal organization, seizing more than 7 tonnes of cocaine across the Netherlands, Belgium, and Ecuador. 16 individuals were arrested including a high-value logistics coordinator. The network used banana and shrimp containers for EU-bound cocaine shipments, highlighting Ecuador's growing role in European supply chains.