Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Government to Tender 2,100 MW Across Three Power Projects in 2026 — Including 1,500 MW Solar Mega-Plant in Zapotillo That Would Rank Among Latin America's Largest
Ecuador's Energy Ministry announced plans to tender three major power generation projects in 2026 totaling 2,100 MW: a 400 MW natural gas combined-cycle plant, a 200 MW solar photovoltaic facility in Santa Elena, and a 1,500 MW solar mega-park in Zapotillo, Loja province. The combined investment pipeline is estimated at $2.5-3 billion and represents Ecuador's most aggressive energy diversification push since the 2016 hydroelectric expansion, directly addressing the grid vulnerability exposed by the 2024 blackout crisis.
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
Ecuador's National Cocoa Exporters Association (ANECACAO) projects cocoa exports will exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, a 11.3% increase from 2025's 560,000 MT. The volume surge positions Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season. However, the export growth coincides with international cocoa prices crashing below $3,100/MT — a 65% decline from the $9,000/MT peak in April 2025 — creating a volume-up, revenue-down dynamic that threatens farmer incomes.
89 Mining Concessions Suspended Across Napo, Loja, and El Oro in One Week — Environmental Enforcement Crackdown Intensifies Under Noboa
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy suspended 89 mining concessions and shuttered 54 mineral processing plants across Napo, Loja, and El Oro provinces in a single-week enforcement operation. The crackdown — targeting operations that lack environmental licenses, exceed permitted boundaries, or fail to comply with water protection regulations — signals the Noboa administration's dual approach of aggressively courting international mining investment while demonstrating environmental governance credentials to satisfy ESG-conscious investors and multilateral lenders.
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs 6-3, Trump Signs 15% Global Surcharge Under Section 122 — Ecuador's $6.6B Export Channel Faces New Uncertainty
The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA-based tariffs are unconstitutional, immediately invalidating the existing reciprocal tariff framework. President Trump signed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act within hours, escalating it to 15% the following day. Ecuador — which exported $6.6 billion to the US in 2025, up 30.3% year-over-year — faces a recalibrated trade landscape where shrimp exporters alone ship approximately $20 million per month to American buyers.
Ecuador Files 3 Counter-Complaints Against Colombia at CAN General Secretariat, Escalating Andean Trade Dispute to Full Institutional Battle
Ecuador's Ministry of Production (MPCEIP) filed three formal complaints with the Andean Community (CAN) General Secretariat, arguing that its 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports is a legitimate national security tool permitted under Andean trade rules. The filing directly counters Colombia's legal challenge and escalates a bilateral dispute that has already seen Colombia retaliate with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees, threatening $2.3 billion in annual bilateral trade.
Fedexpor Warns Colombia Actively Replacing Ecuador Suppliers With Chinese, Brazilian, and Mexican Alternatives — Signals Permanent Market-Share Loss Risk
Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero warned at a Guayaquil industry event that Colombia is actively sourcing from China, Brazil, and Mexico to replace Ecuadorian suppliers disrupted by the bilateral tariff dispute. Despite record non-oil exports of $29.4 billion in 2025 with 18.3% growth, Fedexpor projects 2026 growth will decelerate sharply to 6-7%, with the Colombia substitution dynamic posing a risk of permanent market-share loss rather than temporary trade disruption.
Ecuador Business Lending Rates Fall Up to 2.89 Percentage Points Year-Over-Year as Improved Sovereign Confidence Frees Domestic Liquidity
Ecuador's business lending rates have fallen by up to 2.89 percentage points year-over-year, with corporate rates declining from 9.33% to 7.54%, business rates from 11.92% to 9.03%, and SME rates from 11.04% to 9.67%. The Ministry of Finance attributes the rate compression to improved international confidence that has reduced sovereign borrowing needs in the domestic market, freeing liquidity for private sector credit expansion following Moody's upgrade and a $4 billion international bond sale.
Cocoa Prices Crash Below $3,100/Ton From Record Highs as 287,000-Tonne Global Surplus Emerges — Ecuador Positioned to Become World's No. 2 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed below $3,100 per metric ton, a dramatic reversal from the record highs of 2024-2025, driven by a projected 287,000-tonne global production surplus. Ecuador stands to benefit from the supply rebalancing: with yields of 800 kg/ha versus Ghana's 400 kg/ha and projected output exceeding 650,000 MT in 2026/27, the country is on track to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer — though lower prices per ton will partially offset the volume gains.
Israeli FM Gideon Saar Makes Historic Ecuador Visit, Launches Formal Trade Negotiations and Signs Security Cooperation Pact in Guayaquil
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Guayaquil in what officials described as the first visit by an Israeli foreign minister to Ecuador, launching formal trade negotiations and signing a security cooperation agreement. The visit is part of Israel's declared strategy of making 2026 its 'year of Latin America,' potentially opening a new market for Ecuadorian agricultural and commodity exports within Israel's approximately $20 billion Latin American trade relationship.
Ecuador Vehicle Sales Surge 37% in January to Best Month in 5 Years — EVs and Hybrids Reach 22% Combined Market Share With Chinese Brands Dominant
Ecuador's vehicle market recorded 11,342 units sold in January 2026, a 37% year-over-year increase and the best January in five years according to AEADE data. Electrified vehicles captured 22.2% of the market — 5.4% pure electric and 16.8% hybrid — with Chinese brands dominating the EV segment. However, the ANT's corruption investigation has suspended parts of the vehicle registration system, creating a potential drag on near-term sales momentum.
Ecuador's Export Sector Absorbs $525 Million/Year in Security and Redundant Port Inspection Costs, Creating Hidden Competitiveness Drag
Ecuador's export sector absorbs approximately $525 million per year in security and port inspection costs, according to Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero. Private security accounts for $400-425 million while redundant narcotics inspections — where containers are X-ray scanned at $50 then physically opened up to three more times at $200 each — add another $100 million. The costs represent a hidden competitiveness drag that compresses exporter margins despite record $29.4 billion in non-oil exports.
IMF Completes Fourth Extended Fund Facility Review, Approves $630 Million Disbursement as Ecuador's Recovery Outpaces Expectations
The International Monetary Fund completed the fourth review of Ecuador's Extended Fund Facility arrangement, approving an immediate disbursement of approximately $630 million. The IMF noted the economy is 'recovering much faster than anticipated,' with all quantitative performance criteria met and the fiscal deficit narrowing to just 0.7% of GDP in 2025 — well ahead of the consolidation path.
