Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador Bolsters Thermoelectric Capacity Amid Dry Season and El Niño Concerns
Ecuador's National Electricity Operator Cenace reports an average thermoelectric generation of 875 MW between September 1 and September 23, 2026, contributing approximately 19% of national demand. This increase is partly due to two new generation barges, which began operation on September 21, 2026, adding 200 MW.
Ecuador's Country Risk Remains Below 500 Points Following J.P. Morgan's New EMBI Methodology Implementation
Ecuador has maintained a country risk score below 500 basic points since January 2026, attributed to a new calculation methodology for the EMBI by J.P. Morgan. This change, implemented in early September, has been applied to historical data, reflecting improved investor and lender optimism and enabling better financing conditions for the nation.
Ecuador and U.S. Forces Conduct Joint Operation, Dismantling Alleged CJNG-Linked Drug Trafficking Network
On the morning of September 24, troops from the U.S. Southern Command, DEA agents, and members of the National Police carried out their first joint operation in Ecuadorian territory. The operation focused on the provinces of Guayas, Los Ríos, and El Oro, leading to the dismantling of a drug trafficking organization with alleged ties to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
Ecuador's Oil Production Recovers, Government Seeks Private Investment for Sacha Field
Ecuador's average oil production reached 460,562 barrels per day from January to August 2026, marking an 8.1% recovery from the previous year's pipeline disruptions. The government is actively pursuing private investment for the Sacha oil field, with interest from UAE companies, following a previous unfinalized process in 2025.
Ecuador Records Lowest Annual Inflation in South America at 1.12% in August
Ecuador closed August with an annual inflation rate of 1.12%, positioning the country as having the lowest inflation in South America. This stability is seen by the Ministry of Economic and Productive Development as crucial for reducing uncertainty, facilitating financial planning for households and businesses, and fostering investment conditions.
Ecuador-South Korea SECA Agreement Poised to Boost Exports with Significant Tariff Reductions
The Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement (SECA) between Ecuador and South Korea, signed in March 2025, is pending approval by South Korea's National Assembly. Once implemented, it will grant immediate 0% tariff access to 7,473 subheadings of Ecuadorian goods, including shrimp and textiles, into the Korean market.
IESS Plans Real Estate Sales to Address Financial Sustainability Crisis, Targeting $2 Billion in Liquidity
The Ecuadorian Social Security Institute (IESS) plans to sell 175 identified real estate properties, primarily in Guayas, Pichincha, Manabí, Santa Elena, and Azuay, to gain liquidity amid a financial sustainability crisis, particularly within its Pension Fund. President Daniel Noboa stated the sales could generate USD 2,000 million.
Ecuador's Non-Oil Exports Surge 25% in July 2026, Driven by Shrimp and Diversified Products
Ecuador's non-oil exports reached $2,914 million in July 2026, marking a 25% year-over-year increase from $2,330 million in July 2025. This growth was supported by a 19.2% rise in export volume and strong performance in both traditional and non-traditional sectors, with shrimp leading sales and China solidifying its position as the primary buyer.
Ecuador's Cocoa Sector Faces 2026 Challenges Amid Export Decline and El Niño Risk
Ecuador's cocoa sector is navigating a challenging 2026, marked by a smaller harvest, declining international prices, and the looming threat of intense El Niño rains. Export volumes decreased by 8.3% and value by 55% between January and July 2026 compared to the previous year.
Ecuador's Remittances Projected to Reach Historic High of $8.020 Million in 2026, Driving Household Consumption
The Central Bank of Ecuador projects remittances to reach a historic high of $8.020 million in 2026, representing an approximate 3.8% annual expansion. This figure is estimated to be about 5.90% of the gross domestic product and is expected to accelerate household consumption.
Ecuador's Oil Production Targets Face Lower Projections from Central Bank Amidst Shifting Price Outlook
Ecuador's Ministry of Energy aims for 500,000 barrels per day by December 2026, but the Central Bank of Ecuador projects a lower average of 463,013 bpd for 2027. Oil revenues increased significantly in 2026, while future price forecasts anticipate a market correction despite current high prices.
El Niño Strengthens Off Ecuador, Impacting Fisheries and Coastal Weather Patterns
El Niño continues to strengthen in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperature anomalies reaching up to +4.5 °C off Ecuador and Peru. This phenomenon is already affecting fishing activity and has led to increased rainfall and river flows in the Litoral region, with further precipitation expected.