Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
US-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Deal 'Substantially Concluded' With Full Tariff Elimination — Shrimp Sector Demands Inclusion in Final Product List
The United States and Ecuador have 'substantially concluded' negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement that would fully eliminate the 15% surcharge on Ecuadorian goods. However, the shrimp sector — representing $2 billion annually in US-bound exports — has not been confirmed in the final product list, prompting CNA president José Antonio Camposano to warn that 'every agreement the country negotiates must include shrimp.'
Ecuador's Petroleum Paradox: $5.9B in Projected Crude Exports Nearly Matched by $5.0B Fuel Import Bill in 2026
Ecuador's Ministry of Finance projects the country will export approximately $5.926 billion in crude oil in 2026 while importing $4.981 billion in refined fuels — reducing the net petroleum benefit to just $945 million. The near-parity between crude revenue and fuel costs represents an 85% erosion from 2023 levels and exposes the structural fragility of an oil-producing nation that cannot refine enough of its own crude.
Ecuador Ships 39,000 Tonnes of Flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 as US Tariff Hike Drives 6% Decline in American Orders
Ecuador's flower industry dispatched 39,000 metric tonnes of cut flowers during the 2026 Valentine's season (January 20 – February 11), up from 37,000 tonnes in 2025. However, the US tariff increase from 6.8% to 21.8% drove a 6% decline in US-bound shipments, costing the sector an estimated $6 million in lost revenue as Colombia's duty-free access captured displaced demand.
DP World Advances $190 Million Posorja Port Expansion: Berth to Reach 800 Meters by Late 2026, Capacity Jumps 40% to 1.4 Million TEU
DP World announced the advancement of a $190 million expansion of its Posorja deep-water terminal, extending the main berth from 467.5 meters to 800 meters and increasing annual capacity by 40% to 1.4 million TEU. The World Bank-ranked most efficient port in Latin America will deploy all-electric quay cranes and 900+ refrigerated container plugs to support Ecuador's surging commodity exports.
Shrimp Officially Overtakes Petroleum as Ecuador's #1 Export Product: $8.4 Billion vs $7.75 Billion in 2025
In a milestone that redefines Ecuador's economic identity, shrimp exports closed 2025 at $8.401 billion — officially surpassing petroleum at $7.750 billion to become the country's single largest export product for the first time in modern history. The crossover ends petroleum's five-decade dominance and confirms Ecuador's structural transformation toward an aquaculture-led export economy.
Ecuador's Non-Petroleum Exports Hit All-Time Record $25.2 Billion in 2025, Up 16% as Shrimp, Cacao, and Bananas Drive Structural Diversification
Ecuador's non-petroleum, non-mining exports reached a record $25.202 billion in 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase representing $4.553 billion in additional export revenue. The performance generated a positive non-petroleum trade balance of $5.032 billion and confirmed a structural shift in the country's export profile, led by shrimp ($8.4B, +20%), cacao ($4.7B, +29%), and bananas ($4.3B, +11%).
Petroecuador Awards 14.4 Million-Barrel Crude Export Contract Worth ~$645 Million to Unipec, Shell, PetroChina, and ENAP
Petroecuador awarded export contracts for 14.4 million barrels of crude oil -- 9.36 million barrels of Oriente and 5.04 million barrels of Napo grade -- to four international firms in tenders held February 5, 2026. The contracts, worth an estimated $645 million in state revenue, went to Unipec America (Sinopec subsidiary), Shell Western Supply and Trading, PetroChina International, and Chile's ENAP, reflecting Ecuador's continued diversification of crude buyers beyond its traditional China-heavy offtake base.
Lundin Gold Commits $100 Million to 2026 Ecuador Exploration Campaign, Plans 133,000 Meters of Drilling at Fruta del Norte Complex
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration budget for 2026 -- the largest single-year exploration investment in Ecuador's mining sector -- with 133,000 meters of planned drilling across concessions in Zamora Chinchipe province. The company set full-year production guidance at 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,110-$1,170/oz, and expects to make development decisions on both the Fruta del Norte South deposit and a mill expansion beyond 5,500 tonnes per day by year-end.
World Bank Approves $900 Million Job Creation DPF and $200 Million Disaster Risk Facility, Reinforcing Ecuador's Fiscal Consolidation Path
The World Bank approved a $900 million Development Policy Financing operation for job creation and fiscal sustainability, alongside a $200 million disaster risk management facility, in November 2025. The combined $1.1 billion package supports Ecuador's fiscal consolidation -- with the deficit expected to narrow to just 0.7% of GDP in 2025 -- and positions the country to absorb climate and seismic shocks without derailing macro stability.
Banana Exports Hit 377 Million Boxes in 2025 With 3.9% Growth, But Fusarium TR4 Confirmation in December Clouds the 2026 Outlook
Ecuador exported over 377 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, driven by surging demand from China and Turkey. But the December 2025 confirmation of Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) on Ecuadorian soil -- the first detection in the country -- has triggered emergency phytosanitary measures and represents the most significant threat to the sector in decades. Containment efforts will determine whether Ecuador can sustain its dominance as the world's top banana exporter.
US and Ecuador Sign Reciprocal Trade Framework: Tariff Exemptions for Non-Competing Goods, Market Access for US Machinery and Digital Services
The United States and Ecuador signed a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade in November 2025, establishing mutual commitments on tariff relief, agricultural market access, and digital trade. Under the framework, Ecuadorian goods that 'cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States in sufficient quantities' -- likely including shrimp, cacao, and bananas -- will be exempt from the 15% reciprocal tariff. Ecuador committed to reducing duties on US machinery, chemicals, motor vehicles, and eliminating discriminatory digital services taxes.
Ecuador Cacao Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026, Positioning Country to Overtake Ghana as World's No. 2 Producer
The National Cocoa Exporters Association (Anecacao) projects Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons of cacao in 2026, a pace that would position Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer by the 2026/27 season. Ecuador's ascent is fuelled by rising planted area, improving yields from hybrid varieties, and sustained elevated global prices driven by supply shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to drought, disease, and ageing tree stock.
